According to BlockBeats, an analysis of Bitcoin's historical performance from 2010 to 2026 shows that the vast majority of Bitcoin's annual gains tend to be concentrated in a very few trading days. Therefore, many industry insiders believe that long-term holding may be more advantageous than frequently trying to time the market.

Data shows that in 11 of the past 18 years, if the top 10 performing days of the year were removed, a year that would have been profitable would have turned into a loss. For example, Bitcoin rose 94% throughout 2019, but if the top 10 performing days were removed, the year would have fallen 40%; from 2026 to date, Bitcoin has fallen by about 9%, but if the top 5 performing days were removed, the decline would widen to about 36%.

Andre Dragosch, Head of Research for Europe at Bitwise, said that Bitcoin spends most of its time in a sideways or consolidating state, with major gains typically concentrated on a few breakout days. Therefore, it is extremely difficult to accurately time these events, and "holding time is more important than timing."

Adam Haeems, head of asset management at Tesseract Group, pointed out that Bitcoin fell by about 14% on February 5, 2026, and then rose by about 12% the following day, showing that trying to avoid the decline to obtain excess returns may also involve the risk of missing out on a rapid rebound.

As spot ETFs, institutional funds, and corporate balance sheet allocations increase, Bitcoin's daily volatility is generally declining, but market returns still exhibit a characteristic of periodic concentrated bursts.

According to BlockBeats, on September 6th, ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on September 15th-16th, the Trump administration is increasing public pressure on the Fed to avoid raising interest rates or even further cutting them. Trump, Vice President Vance, Treasury Secretary Bessant, and White House senior economic advisor Navarro have all recently publicly called for maintaining or lowering interest rates.

The market currently anticipates a 60% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September, primarily driven by the 162,000 new non-farm payroll jobs added in August and the unemployment rate remaining at 4.1%. Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh, however, continues to emphasize inflation risks, noting that 54% of the PCE price index has risen by more than 3% over the past 12 months, suggesting the Fed should focus on controlling inflation.

Trump recently stated that if the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates, the US may take measures such as halting trade with countries that have a trade surplus with the US. With the November midterm elections approaching, high prices and high interest rates are putting increasing political pressure on the Trump administration. The market will now focus on the US CPI data released this week, which could be crucial in determining whether the Fed will raise interest rates in September or maintain them unchanged.