According to BlockBeats, on August 19th, CLSA published a research report stating that Zhipu (02513.HK)'s GLM-5.3 API is now open for use. It demonstrates leading performance among domestic peers in complex coding and long-cycle proxy tasks. Although the parameter scale is relatively small, it has achieved state-of-the-art performance with open weights in a number of benchmark tests, and scored 60 points in the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, which is on par with Kimi 3 and surpasses Tongyi Qianwen 3.8 Max.

The bank estimates that OpenRouter's revenue share for GLM models has risen from 1% in January to 7% in July, ahead of DeepSeek's 6% and the dark side of the month's 3%. It believes that DeepSeek's recent price increases reflect healthy competition in the industry, and that GLM 5.3 has regained its Pareto frontier position.

Recent share price weakness may reflect an overreaction by the market to the slowdown in Anthropic's annualized recurring revenue. We maintain our "Outperform" rating on Anthropic with a target price of HK$2061. (Golden Ten)

According to BlockBeats, on August 19th, as US economic data weakened, the interest rate options market is adjusting its expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy path. Although long-term US Treasury yields remain at multi-year highs, traders have begun betting on future rate cuts and hedging against the risk of an economic slowdown through options positions.

Recent data shows that U.S. inflation and consumer demand cooled in July, with the non-farm payrolls report unexpectedly showing a loss of 23,000 jobs, retail sales recording their largest decline in over a year, and consumer confidence weakening simultaneously. As a result, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September have significantly decreased.

Interest rate options market data shows that some investors are closing out positions previously betting on rate hikes in September and December, and shifting their focus to trades betting on rate cuts before mid-2027. Several related trades have recently appeared in the SOFR options market, including contracts betting on the September meeting maintaining the current interest rate, and call options expiring in March and June 2027.

Currently, the interest rate swap market indicates that the Fed's September meeting only implies about 9 basis points of room for a rate hike, with a cumulative tightening expectation of about 40 basis points by June 2027. Two weeks ago, the market's probability of a September rate hike once reached 68%, but such bets have now cooled significantly.

Meanwhile, the three major forecasting markets, Polymarket, Kalshi, and Myriad, unusually reached a consensus, all believing that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in September is about 74% to 75%.

Market participants say that the high yields on long-term bonds and the shift in short-term interest rate expectations are not contradictory. The former reflects fiscal deficits, bond supply and long-term inflation risks, while the latter reflects more economic growth and changes in the Federal Reserve's policy cycle.

In the coming weeks, U.S. inflation data, the performance of the job market, and speeches by Federal Reserve officials will be key factors influencing the September interest rate decision and market pricing.

According to BlockBeats, on August 19, global financial markets experienced severe volatility, with both stock and bond markets in Europe, the US, Japan, and South Korea suffering losses. The surge in long-term US Treasury yields became a focus of market attention.

In Asian markets, the South Korean stock market experienced a sharp decline, triggering trading mechanisms. The KOSPI index closed down 5.8%, SK Hynix fell nearly 10%, and Samsung Electronics dropped over 8%. The Nikkei 225 index closed down 3.16%. In the A-share market, over 5,000 stocks declined, with sectors related to the AI industry chain, including semiconductors, computing hardware, PCBs, memory chips, and CPOs, leading the losses.

In the US stock market, the three major indexes fell for the third consecutive trading day, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping nearly 5% in a single day. Shares of AI-related companies such as Micron Technology, Western Digital, SanDisk, Marvell, AMD, Intel, Coherent, and Credo experienced significant pullbacks.

Market analysts believe the core trigger for this round of sell-off was the rapid rise in global long-term bond yields. The 30-year US Treasury yield rose to 5.33% intraday, a new high since 2007. At the same time, yields on long-term government bonds in France, Germany, the UK, and Japan all rose to multi-year highs, indicating a repricing of global long-term funding costs.

Data from the U.S. Treasury Department shows that foreign investors' holdings of U.S. Treasury securities fell to $9.299 trillion in June, a decrease of approximately $72 billion from May. Among them, Japan's holdings fell to $1.116 trillion, a reduction of $26.4 billion in a single month; and the UK's holdings fell to $939.9 billion.

As risk-free interest rates climb, the market is beginning to reassess the high-capital-investment model of the AI industry. Investors are concerned that the continued expansion of data centers, GPU procurement, and infrastructure construction requires substantial financing, and higher financing costs could compress the future cash flow valuations of technology companies.

The market is currently focused on three major variables: the trend of the 30-year US Treasury yield, the Federal Reserve's judgment on the long-term interest rate path, and whether the subsequent financial reports of tech giants such as Nvidia and Broadcom can validate the expected returns on AI investments.

The U.S. Treasury will issue $16 billion in 20-year Treasury bonds at 1 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, and the market will closely watch the results of this issuance.