According to BlockBeats, on July 8th, Wall Street investment bank Bernstein stated in its global memory monthly tracking report that DRAM contract prices continued to rise month-on-month in June, implying that the average price of traditional DRAM in Q2 2026 will increase by approximately 74% compared to Q1. Demand from servers and mobile devices remains the main driver, with server DRAM prices expected to rise by approximately 60% to 67% in Q2, and mobile DRAM prices approaching 80%.

The spot market also showed tight supply. In June, PC DRAM spot prices rose 5.6% month-on-month to 11.5%, while Server DRAM rose 6.1% to 26.4%. The report stated that Server DDR5 performed particularly strongly, with spot prices significantly higher than contract prices, indicating that demand from AI and cloud service providers is still absorbing the new capacity that suppliers are shifting to the server side.

However, Bernstein also cautioned that the pace of price increases would slow significantly in the third quarter. TrendForce predicts that traditional DRAM prices will rise by 13% to 18% in the third quarter, down from the steep increases in the second quarter. PC, mobile phone, and consumer electronics customers are reducing configurations or adjusting their purchasing pace. While demand disruption has not yet fully materialized, the report believes it will eventually occur.

The situation in the NAND market is more mixed. In June, spot NAND wafer prices actually fell by 3% to 4%, while contract wafer prices rose only slightly by 0.3% to 3.7%. However, strong price increases in mobile NAND and SSDs will still drive overall NAND contract prices up by about 60% in the second quarter. Bernstein stated that SSD and mobile storage price increases could reach 70% to 80%, offsetting the weakness in the wafer market.

AI remains the key variable in this storage cycle. Cloud service providers and server customers continue to prioritize securing supply, with some US CSPs having completed long-term agreement negotiations, while Chinese CSPs are still in negotiations. Long-term agreements help smooth out future price declines, but may also limit the room for some suppliers to further raise prices.

In its investment conclusions, Bernstein maintains positive ratings for Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and SanDisk, while remaining cautious on Kioxia. The report believes that storage prices may remain strong until 2027, but will gradually normalize from the second half of 2027 to 2028 as long-term agreements take effect and new capacity comes online.