According to BlockBeats, the Federal Reserve will release its interest rate decision and summary of economic projections at 2:00 AM Beijing time on Thursday, September 16th. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will hold a press conference half an hour later. Federal funds futures indicate a 92.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike, with the target rate range expected to rise from 3.50%-3.75% to 3.75%-4.00%. If the rate hike occurs, it will be Warsh's first rate hike since taking office in May of this year.

US core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month in August, while Middle East tensions pushed oil prices back above $100 a barrel. The market will focus on the voting patterns and the new dot plot to determine whether the minority stance of only three officials supporting a rate hike in July has transformed into a broader policy consensus, and whether there will be another rate hike this year. Compared to this 25 basis point adjustment, Warsh's statement on the future interest rate path may be more crucial.

Wall Street institutions are mainly speculating on three scenarios: If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points and hints that it will only raise rates once or twice more before ending the hike, the US stock market may be able to digest this result, and the 10-year US Treasury yield may fall slightly; if the Federal Reserve holds rates steady but hints at a rate hike this year, the initial rebound in the stock market may be difficult to sustain, long-term US Treasury yields may rise, the US dollar may weaken, and the performance of gold and physical assets may be boosted; if the dot plot or post-meeting statements hint at three or more consecutive rate hikes, the 10-year US Treasury yield may significantly exceed 5%, the US stock market may fall by more than 1%, and the US dollar may strengthen.

Warsh faces dual pressures: demands from the White House to lower borrowing costs and rising bond market yields. The market is watching to see if Warsh can demonstrate the Fed's commitment to addressing inflation without investors interpreting this action as the start of a new, sustained rate hike cycle.

According to BlockBeats, on September 16, based on BIT (bit.com) market data, the three major US stock indexes all rose at the opening, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.08%, the S&P 500 up 0.24%, and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.42%.

The Neocloud sector led the gains, with Cipher Digital (CIFR) up 8.75%, Core Scientific (CORZ) up 3.96%, Applied Digital (APLD) up 3.16%, TeraWulf (WULF) up 3.11%, and CoreWeave (CRWV) up 3.07%.

Optical communication concept stocks collectively strengthened, with Nokia (NOK) up 5.60%, Coherent (COHR) up 4.61%, Credo (CRDO) up 4.60%, Ciena (CIEN) up 3.34%, and Astera Labs (ALAB) up 3.01%.

Storage stocks generally rose, with Western Digital (WDC) up 3.12%, SK Hynix (SKHY) up 2.79%, Seagate Technology (STX) up 1.94%, Micron Technology (MU) up 0.61%, and SanDisk (SNDK) up 0.47%.

Most semiconductor stocks rose, with Intel (INTC) up 5.88%, Arm (ARM) up 3.30%, AMD up 2.97%, and Marvell Technology (MRVL) up 2.17%.