According to Polymarket, a prediction market platform, as of February 14th, the probability of a "US government shutdown this Saturday" contract has dropped to 2%, a significant decrease from its previous high. The total trading volume for this contract is approximately $10.78 million. Previously, the market had priced in a higher shutdown risk, but this expectation was quickly revised as negotiations progressed.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that Jake Paul announced on the X platform that his venture capital fund, Anti Fund, co-founded with Geoffrey Woo, now manages over $65 million in assets. The fund has transitioned from an initial rolling fund to an institutional firm and has successfully secured investments from well-known projects such as OpenAI, Anduril, Polymarket, and Ramp. Paul stated that he is the first celebrity to reach a licensing agreement with OpenAI's text-to-video platform, Sora, granting them rights to his name, image, and likeness. Anti Fund partner Steve Han stated that the fund leverages its marketing and distribution capabilities on social media to support tech startups. Previously, Paul reached a settlement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding the illegal promotion of his crypto scheme. (fortune)

Odaily Planet Daily reports that with the 2026 Academy Awards just around the corner, betting on various awards on Polymarket is now open. The top results are as follows: Best Picture: *World War I & II* leads with 75% odds; Best Actor: Timothée Chalamet leads with 77% odds; Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson leads with 91% odds; Best Actress: Jessie Buckley leads with 93% odds; Best Original Screenplay: *The Sinner* leads with 84% odds; Best Supporting Actress: Teyana Taylor leads with 72% odds; Best Supporting Actor: Stellan Skarsgård leads with 67% odds; Best Documentary Feature: *The Perfect Neighbor* leads with 65% odds; Best Original Score: *The Sinner* leads with 87% odds.

According to data from Polymarket, as reported by Odaily, the probability of another US government shutdown before February 14th has plummeted to 3%, with trading volume exceeding $9.89 million. Previously, the probability of this scenario on Polymarket had risen to 97%.

According to a report by Blockworks researcher Kunal Doshi on the X platform, Polymarket's newly launched 5-minute BTC market generated $25.2 million in trading volume within 40 hours of its launch. The average trading volume per window was approximately $52,000, reaching 10% to 20% of the 15-minute market's trading volume. Data shows that 7.1% of individual addresses simultaneously bought both Yes and No orders within a single window, while only 4.2% of addresses did so across more than 50 windows. Although these addresses were fewer in number, they accounted for 7.5% of the total trading volume and 23.4% of the total number of transactions. Of these, 92.6% of the orders were buy orders, and 72.3% were pending orders that were filled. These addresses profited in 80% of the windows, with a median Yes + No price of $0.9823. Currently, the market exhibits early arbitrage activity; if structured liquidity is introduced, the 5-minute market's trading volume is expected to surpass that of the 15-minute market.

According to Odaily Planet Daily, Andy Hall, a professor at Stanford Graduate School of Business and an advisor to a16z & Meta, published an article on the X platform stating that his team has created a new dataset focusing on political prediction markets, liquidity, and settlement rules. The research found that the vast majority of political contracts in prediction markets lack activity, with only 1.3% possessing sufficient liquidity. Kalshi and Polymarket rarely list identical contracts with the same rules, further fragmenting liquidity. Andy Hall proposes four improvements: First, list contracts on core issues and collaborate with independent institutions to define markets of social concern; second, pay market makers to inject initial liquidity into political markets; third, introduce AI agents to trade in areas where humans are not involved, generating price references needed by society; and fourth, establish unified definitions and settlement rules across platforms. Andy Hall believes these measures will attract traders hedging political risk, making prediction markets the truth-telling machines society needs.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that Polymarket official Mustafa (@mustafap0ly) posted a picture on X last night and quickly deleted it. The picture showed a screenshot of an operation using Claude Code, with the task instruction being "migrate the fee collection mechanism on CLOB (Central Limit Order Book) from USDC.e to POLY. The relevant code is currently located in the staging branch."

According to Odaily Planet Daily, in response to a user question about whether a snapshot had already been taken, William LeGate, Head of Marketing at Polymarket, replied that it had not yet been taken. Yesterday, another Polymarket official, Mustafa, stated that an airdrop of POLY tokens was part of the next phase of the plan.

Huoxun Finance reported on February 13th that, according to Lookonchain, an insider trader named Rundeep placed six bets on Polymarket related to Israeli military operations, all of which were profitable, totaling $154,000. Subsequently, Israeli prosecutors indicted a reservist and a civilian, alleging that the two used military secrets to place bets on Polymarket. The report notes that Rundeep has stopped trading for over a month, and whether he is under investigation or facing other consequences has not yet been disclosed.

According to Odaily Planet Daily, Rodrigo, an official from Polymarket, announced on Discord that the fee structure will be extended to the NCAA (College Basketball) and Serie A (Italian Football League) markets. The fee structure is the same as the "15-minute cryptocurrency price fluctuation market," where the taker pays the fee and the maker receives a rebate. However, the coefficients are different—the fee rate is 0.0175, the index is 1, and the maker receives a 25% rebate, resulting in lower overall costs. Starting at midnight UTC on Wednesday, February 18, 2026, all newly created NCAA and Serie A events will be subject to the new fee structure. Existing events will not be affected. The first rebate will be issued at midnight UTC on February 19.

According to data from Polymarket, as reported by Odaily, the probability of another US government shutdown before February 14th has risen to 97%, with trading volume approaching $3 million. Previously, the White House made last-minute efforts to avoid a shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security, submitting legislative text to Democrats before the funding deadline. Democrats are expected to reject the proposal, stating that previous proposals were "neither complete nor sufficient."

Huoxun Finance reported on February 13th that, according to The Block, Michael S. Selig, Chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), announced the formation of a 35-member Innovation Advisory Committee, with several cryptocurrency industry executives appointed. Selig stated that the committee will assist the CFTC in developing a regulatory framework for the role of "breakthrough technologies" such as artificial intelligence and blockchain in financial markets, ensuring that its decisions reflect market realities and establishing clear rules for a "golden age of U.S. financial markets." Committee members include representatives from blockchain projects, including Vivek Raman of Etherealize, Anatoly Yakovenko of Solana Labs, Brad Garlinghouse of Ripple, Sergey Nazarov, CEO of Chainlink Labs, and Hayden Adams, CEO of Uniswap Labs. Executives from centralized exchanges such as Bullish, Coinbase, Crypto.com, Gemini, Kraken, Bitnomial, and Robinhood are also on the committee. Shayne Coplan, founder of the prediction market platform Polymarket, and Tarek Mansour, founder of Kalshi, were also appointed. Chris Dixon of crypto venture capital firm a16zcrypto, Vance Spencer of Framework Ventures, and Alana Palmedo of Paradigm were also selected. The committee also includes representatives from traditional financial institutions such as Cboe, CME, DTCC, Nasdaq, and options clearing companies.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that prediction market platform Polymarket announced the official opening of "The Polymarket," New York City's first free grocery store, located at 137 South 7th Avenue. Built by New Yorkers, it serves the city's residents. This comes amidst intensified competition between prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket for new user acquisition. Kalshi launched an event on February 3rd at WestSide Market in Lower Manhattan, offering customers $50 worth of free groceries. Long lines formed, with many participants stating that this was equivalent to several hours' wages, making it very attractive. Kalshi co-founder Tarek Mansour stated that this initiative was to give back to the community and expand its user base. Polymarket, meanwhile, opened "The Polymarket," New York City's first free grocery store, today. All items are free, no purchase required, and open to all New Yorkers. An additional $1 million has been donated to local food banks.

Huoxun Finance News, February 12th - According to official news, Polymarket has launched a "5-minute cryptocurrency price change" prediction event. The market settles every 5 minutes and currently only supports BTC. Furthermore, Mustafa, a member of the Polymarket team, stated that a "1-minute price change" prediction event and the POLY token are part of the next phase of the plan.

According to a post on the X platform by prediction market KOL @CarOnPolymarket, PolyMarket senior intern @mustafap0ly confirmed that Polymarket will launch a "1-minute cryptocurrency price change" prediction event market; at the same time, a POLY token airdrop is planned for the next phase. Previously, Polymarket had already launched a "5-minute BTC price change" prediction event.

According to Odaily Planet Daily, Polymarket has launched a "5-minute cryptocurrency price change" prediction event. The market settles every 5 minutes and currently only supports BTC.

Huoxun Finance News, February 11th - According to BusinessWire, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) announced the launch of the Polymarket Signals and Sentiment tool, providing institutional investors with prediction market data and analysis from Polymarket, making ICE the exclusive provider of this data in institutional capital markets. ICE standardizes prediction market data related to finance and commodities on Polymarket, generating "population prediction probability" signals that can be used by professional and institutional traders to assist in alpha strategy development and risk management. The service is provided through ICE's existing data infrastructure, supporting near real-time data access and historical time series data from ICE Consolidated History for backtesting and quantitative analysis, and can be integrated with ICE's securities pricing, fundamental data, and corporate behavior data.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that bearish sentiment dominates the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin and Ethereum continuing their decline. In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin fell approximately 2.4% to around $66,900, while Ethereum fell approximately 2.7%, breaking below the $2,000 mark. On the macro front, a weakening US dollar and declining US Treasury yields have fueled market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. Polymarket data shows the probability of a March rate cut has risen from 7% at the beginning of the month to approximately 19%, while Kalshi market data shows approximately 21%. In the derivatives market, BTC futures open interest fell to $15.6 billion, indicating a continued deleveraging trend. Funding rates have further turned negative (Binance approximately -6%, Bybit approximately -0.5%), and the three-month basis has narrowed to 1.6%, reflecting a rapid cooling of institutional risk appetite. (CoinDesk)

According to an article published on the X platform by Odaily, Tom Lee stated that the prediction market's turnover has surpassed that of the traditional betting market. Las Vegas' Super Bowl turnover was $130 million, while the prediction market's turnover reached $1.33 billion, ten times that of the former. The turnover rankings for each platform are as follows: 1. Kalshi: $871 million 2. Polymarket: $312 million 3. Opinion Labs: $92 million 4. Predict.fun: $31 million 5. Novig: $19 million 6. SX Bet: $5 million 7. Overtime: $443,000

According to Lookonchain monitoring, rapper Premiere bet approximately $185,000 on Polymarket that Cardi B and Drake wouldn't perform at the Super Bowl LX halftime show. Given Drake's close relationship with Premiere, this initially fueled speculation that he had inside information. However, on-chain data showed that Premiere's associated wallet, 9hDJHg, made multiple transfers to the stake website. During the halftime show, Cardi B danced on stage, but Polymarket counted the dance as a "performance," causing Premiere to lose his bet, amounting to approximately $178,000. Afterwards, he posted on Polymarket that "dancing shouldn't count as a performance," before deleting the post.