Huoxun Finance News, March 6th - According to Cointelegraph, US Democratic Senator Chris Murphy posted a video on the X platform stating that someone placed a "very specific bet" last Friday that "the US will go to war with Iran on Saturday." He pointed out that people close to Trump clearly knew about Saturday's actions in advance, and these bettors likely had inside information. Murphy warned that if such war betting continues, those around the president might "push us into war" because they could profit from it. Several related bets circulated widely on Polymarket last Saturday. Reuters reported that Murphy and Democratic Representative Mike Levin are drafting a bill to strengthen the regulation of prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi. Levin stated that profiting from the supposed foresight of military action "should absolutely be illegal." He pointed out that while commodity laws prohibit contracts involving events "against the public interest," such as war and terrorism, current rules give prediction markets too much freedom.

According to data from Polymarket, as reported by Odaily, the probability of OKX's IPO in 2026 has fallen from a high of 57% in early January to a current 17%, with trading volume exceeding $400,000. Previously, it was reported that ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, invested in OKX at a valuation of $25 billion. ICE declined to disclose the specific investment amount or terms, but emphasized the shared vision between the two companies.

According to data from Polymarket, as reported by Odaily, the probability of "Mojtaba Khamenei, son of Ayatollah Khamenei, becoming Iran's next Supreme Leader" once rose to 82%, but has since fallen back to 50%, with trading volume exceeding $5 million. Previously, it was reported that Trump stated he would not accept Khamenei's son succeeding him as Supreme Leader and that he would personally be involved in Iran's succession arrangements.

Huoxun Finance reported on March 5th that Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, announced an investment in cryptocurrency exchange OKX. This round values OKX at approximately $25 billion, and ICE will also acquire a board seat. OKX will provide ICE with real-time cryptocurrency price data and plans to open trading of on-chain stocks and derivatives listed on the NYSE to its 120 million users starting in the second half of 2026. ICE previously announced the construction of its own blockchain-based tokenized securities trading infrastructure and invested in the prediction market platform Polymarket. OKX previously reached a $500 million settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice regarding unlicensed money transfers and restarted its operations in the U.S. this year, stating it will expand its team in the U.S. for the aforementioned new products.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, has invested in cryptocurrency exchange OKX at a valuation of $25 billion. ICE declined to disclose the specific investment amount or terms, but emphasized the shared vision between the two companies. OKX will reportedly provide ICE with real-time cryptocurrency price data and plans to open trading of on-chain stocks and derivatives listed on the NYSE to its users starting in the second half of 2026. ICE previously announced the construction of its own blockchain-based tokenized securities trading infrastructure and invested in the prediction market platform Polymarket. OKX previously reached a $500 million settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice regarding unlicensed money transfers and restarted its operations in the U.S. this year, stating it will expand its team in the U.S. for the aforementioned new products. (Fortune)

Huoxun Finance reported on March 5th that, according to Bloomberg, prediction markets have experienced rapid growth over the past year, attracting widespread attention, including from traditional financial institutions. Currently, the main platforms in the industry include Polymarket, Kalshi, and Opinion, which are considered to constitute the main competitive landscape. The report points out that as the regulatory environment becomes clearer and trading demand around macro events and trending topics continues to grow, prediction markets are becoming an important new track at the intersection of the crypto industry and traditional finance.

Huoxun Finance reported on March 4th that, according to Lookonchain, a trader with the address 0xa53e, who joined the prediction market Polymarket on February 11th, has been consistently betting on contracts related to a "Russia-Ukraine ceasefire" and has been dubbed "Peacemaker." On-chain data shows that his cumulative bets on these contracts amount to approximately $99,600, with a current unrealized loss of about $11,300. The report indicates that if Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire, this trader is expected to turn a profit and achieve a positive return.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, trader 0xa53e (0xa53e8fc4c2f9910e584de69d8b40a502a638218d) has been betting on a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire since joining Polymarket on February 11, and has spent $99,600, currently suffering a floating loss of $113,000.

According to Odaily Planet Daily, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated that while it was previously estimated that traditional markets would take 5 to 10 years to migrate to on-chain on a large scale, the influx of investors into crypto platforms to trade tokenized assets during the US-Israel attacks on Iran and the closure of major global stock markets significantly accelerated expectations for the widespread adoption of "on-chain finance." The crypto perpetual contract platform Hyperliquid became a trading hub for real-world assets (RWAs) such as crude oil and tokenized gold. "For most of Sunday, on-chain finance was the center of global financial markets," data shows that Hyperliquid's combined trading volume exceeded $11.5 billion over Saturday and Sunday. Furthermore, Tether's tokenized gold product, Tether Gold, saw its 24-hour trading volume surge to over $300 million at one point, and prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket also experienced significant increases in trading volume. (Cointelegraph)

Huoxun Finance reported on March 3rd that, according to CoinDesk, Mike Selig, Chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), stated that the agency will release policies in the coming weeks to provide guidance for the compliant implementation of crypto perpetual contracts in the United States and to promote the launch of "professional-grade" perpetual futures in the U.S. He noted that the previous administration's regulatory approach pushed a large amount of liquidity and business offshore, and that a unified path is currently being pursued through "Project Crypto," a collaboration with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Selig also revealed that the CFTC will release "near-term" guidance on the regulatory approach for DeFi developers and prediction markets (such as Polymarket and Kalshi), and will begin a formal rulemaking process to provide a longer-term legal basis for its regulatory stance.

Huoxun Finance reported on March 3 that, according to on-chain monitoring platform Lookonchain, about an hour ago, a trader created a new anonymous wallet and spent approximately $25,676 betting that "Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31." According to Polymarket's real-time odds, the odds for this event have now risen to 77%.

According to Decrypt, a U.S. federal judge has remanded a lawsuit filed by Nevada against Kalshi and Polymarket to the state court, allowing regulators to seek a preliminary injunction. The court ruled that commodity exchange law does not fully supersede Nevada's gaming law claims, and therefore the federal court lacked subject-matter jurisdiction in the case. If Nevada obtains an injunction, Kalshi could be temporarily prohibited from offering event contracts to users in the state. Kalshi is considering an emergency appeal, while Polymarket has sought a stay of remand while preparing an appeal. Legal analysts point out that this ruling is a major setback for Kalshi, potentially forcing it to withdraw from a state market for the first time due to a court ruling, and could trigger similar actions in other states. If Kalshi is required to implement a territorial blockade in Nevada, it will weaken its argument in other lawsuits that territorial blockades would cause "irreparable harm."

A federal judge has remanded the Nevada case against Kalshi and Polymarket's parent company, Blockratize, to state court, ruling that the claims are primarily based on state law and that the Commodity Exchange Act does not completely exclude these claims. This means Nevada regulators can continue to seek a temporary injunction in state court, increasing the risk that Kalshi and Polymarket may be restricted from offering event contract trading in the state. The report states that Kalshi is evaluating an emergency appeal option, while Polymarket has applied for a stay of execution. Previously, Nevada had alleged that the event contracts in question required a license under state law and filed a lawsuit. (Decrypt)

Huoxun Finance News, March 3rd - According to on-chain cross-comparison analysis, the more than 500 suspicious addresses profiting in the Polymarket Khamenei betting platform are actually a systematic network controlled by a very small number of entities. Analysis of dimensions such as the number of common markets and directional consistency clearly identifies at least three highly correlated address clusters operating in concert. Some of these correlated addresses simultaneously placed bets in as many as 150 derivative betting platforms, demonstrating astonishingly consistent movement. They constructed a decentralized network through dozens of small bets of tens of dollars each to conceal their fund flows and evade risk control. Furthermore, comprehensive screening of abnormal data across eight dimensions revealed that the top 15 suspicious addresses alone obtained a total profit of up to $900,000 from this betting platform. Related reading: On-chain tracking of the Polymarket Khamenei betting platform: 521 addresses precisely lurking, a small number of entities precisely targeting and targeting.

According to data compiled by Gate Research on Dune, Polymarket has accumulated approximately $7.94 million in transaction fees since it began charging fees on select markets on January 6th, with approximately $4.99 million coming from February alone. Note: The markets for which Polymarket currently charges fees currently include "15-minute cryptocurrency price fluctuations" and sports markets such as Serie A and the NCAA.

According to data from Polymarket, as reported by Odaily, the probability of a ceasefire between the US and Iran by March 15th once rose to 64%, before falling back to 25%, with trading volume exceeding $800,000. Earlier reports indicated that Trump stated this morning that the war against Iran is expected to last four to five weeks, but could potentially longer.

Nasdaq plans to launch an options contract that allows "yes or no" bets on major stock indices, becoming the latest exchange operator to enter the rapidly growing prediction market. According to a proposed rule change submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the company hopes to list "binary options" on its flagship Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq 100 Mini indices. The filing shows that Nasdaq contracts will be priced between 1 cent and $1, reflecting market perceptions of the likelihood of a particular outcome. This will be Nasdaq's first foray into mirror prediction market products. These so-called "outcome-related options" will allow traders to take binary positions on whether a specific event occurs. Binary options are a simplified version of options contracts where payouts depend on the outcome of a "yes or no" proposition. The prediction market industry lists financial contracts covering sports, politics, and popular culture. Unlike event contracts regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) at Kalshi, Polymarket US, and the CME Group, binary options are regulated by the SEC. Nasdaq's contract is currently awaiting SEC approval. (Golden Ten)

Odaily Planet Daily reports that Polymarket traders have reduced their bets on regime change in Iran. According to the cryptocurrency prediction market's data, the probability of the Iranian regime collapsing before March 31st currently remains above 20%, lower than the approximately 40% probability when Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei was killed in an airstrike on Saturday. Currently, contracts for the regime's collapse have a trading volume exceeding $14 million. Furthermore, other contracts with later expiration dates show a 42% probability of the Iranian regime collapsing before June 30th and a 50% probability before the end of the year, with trading volumes of $5 million and $7 million respectively. Recently, Polymarket and its rival Kalshi have been embroiled in controversy over betting activities related to US attacks on Iran and the downfall of Ayatollah Khamenei. (WSJ)

According to Odaily Planet Daily, the probability of Opinion launching its token on March 5th on Polymarket has risen to 95.5%. The probability of OPN's FDV exceeding $250 million one day after its launch is currently at 94%, and the probability of exceeding $500 million is currently at 67%. Furthermore, OKX data shows that OPN is currently trading at 0.566 USDT pre-market.

According to Huoxun Finance, citing the New York Times, Trump stated in an interview that the US military intends to continue its attacks on Iran for "four to five weeks" if necessary, and insisted that Israel and the US "would not have difficulty" maintaining the intensity of the conflict. He also warned that there could be more US casualties. When asked about his plans for the power transition, Mr. Trump stated that he hopes Iran's elite forces (including senior officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps who wield significant influence and profit from the current regime) will hand over their weapons to the Iranian people. In the approximately six-minute call, Trump also stated that he has three "very good" candidates to lead Iran, but declined to name them. He repeatedly mentioned his experience in Venezuela, which may suggest that he believes the methods effective in Venezuela are also applicable to Iran. Crypto startups raised $883 million in February, but the number of deals hit a 5.5-year low. According to data from The Block cited by crypto KOLYashasEdu, while crypto startups raised $883 million in February, the overall number of venture capital deals hit a 5.5-year low, and the amount raised was down about 80% from the 2022 peak. Funding is concentrated in a few specific areas, such as stablecoin infrastructure, custody, and compliance tools. 85% of tokens launched in 2025 are trading below their opening price, and the VC narrative has shifted to a "revenue-centric" approach. Arthur Hayes: Prolonged US involvement in the Iran conflict will force the Federal Reserve to print money and drive up Bitcoin prices. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes analyzed that since 1985, every US president has launched military action against Middle Eastern countries, and Trump continues this tradition. He used simple logic to predict Bitcoin's trend: the longer the US is involved in the Iran situation, the more likely the Federal Reserve is to cut interest rates or print money to support war spending, which will drive up Bitcoin prices. Regarding trading strategies, Hayes stated, "It's unclear how long Trump can maintain this investment, spending billions or even trillions of dollars to reshape Iranian politics according to his own will, nor is it clear how much geopolitical and financial market shock he can withstand before withdrawing. The wise approach is to wait and see." Huang Licheng has again experienced partial liquidation, with his wallet balance now only around $9,000. According to OnchainLens monitoring, "Brother Machi" Huang Licheng has again experienced partial liquidation, with his ETH 25x long position further reduced, and his wallet balance now only around $9,000. JPMorgan Chase: The Crypto Market Structure Bill is expected to be approved by mid-year and become a positive catalyst for the second half of the year, according to TheBloc. According to a report by K, JPMorgan analysts stated that the US crypto market structure legislation, the CLARITY Act, is likely to be approved by mid-year and could be a positive catalyst for the second half of the year. The bill has already progressed through the House of Representatives and is still under discussion in the Senate, currently facing two major points of contention: stablecoin yields and conflicts of interest among government officials. Analysts point out that if the bill passes, it will reshape the market structure: providing regulatory clarity, ending "regulation through enforcement," promoting tokenization, and encouraging institutional participation. The analysts listed eight potential positive impacts, including reducing the compliance burden on major tokens, supporting innovation in the US market, unlocking secondary trading, allowing traditional banks to directly custody digital assets, promoting the tokenization of real-world assets, protecting open-source developers, and providing... Daily encrypted payments offer tax-free small transactions and promote the development of tokenized deposits between institutions. Platform X has removed "financial products and cryptocurrencies" from its "Paid Partnership Policy" prohibited industry categories. Nikita Bier, X's product manager and Solana advisor, stated that this was a bug and has been fixed, adding that he loves prediction markets. This means that cryptocurrency-related advertisements on X will now require the "Paid Partnership" disclosure label. Previously, yesterday, it was reported that X's paid partnership policy was updated: cryptocurrencies and investment services are not eligible for promotion. A mysterious account accurately bet on the Iraq airstrikes, plunging the Trump campaign into controversy. According to Jinshi News, over the weekend, with traditional global financial markets closed, a large influx of funds flowed into prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi, as well as decentralized exchanges like Hyperliquid. Investors attempted to hedge their risks or speculate on the aftermath of the US and Israeli attacks on Iran through these platforms. However, this capital frenzy quickly turned into a media storm. On Saturday, numerous accusations emerged on the social media platform X, alleging that some insiders exploited their prior knowledge of the military strikes to profit heavily in the prediction markets. In response to the criticism, a White House spokesperson argued to the media that "the only special interest guiding the Trump administration's decisions is the best interests of the American people." "In fact, crackdowns on insider betting using international conflicts have already begun in parts of the world. Vitalik Buterin outlined the Ethereum execution layer roadmap, focusing on two major changes: the state tree and the virtual machine. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin posted on social media outlining the Ethereum execution layer roadmap, highlighting two major changes: the state tree and the virtual machine. Regarding the state tree, Vitalik supports upgrading the current hexadecimal Merkle Patricia tree to a binary tree based on a more efficient hash function via EIP-7864. This change can shorten Merkle branches by 4 times, reducing the bandwidth cost for client verification data; at the same time, the hash function can be changed to Blake3 or Poseidon series, significantly improving proof efficiency. The binary tree design also groups storage slots into 'pages,' making access costs for adjacent storage lower, and many DeFi applications..." Transactions can save over 10,000 Gas. Furthermore, the binary tree structure is simpler and can reserve metadata bits for future state expiration functionality. Michael Saylor has again posted Bitcoin Tracker information, and may disclose increased holdings next week. Michael Saylor, founder of Bitcoin treasury company Strategy, posted Bitcoin Tracker-related information again on the X platform, writing "The Turn of the Century." Based on past patterns, Strategy always discloses increased Bitcoin holdings the day after the relevant news is released. ANZ Bank: Geopolitical risks escalate, gold remains in a "tailwind." According to Jinshi, ANZ analyst Soni Kumari stated that gold will initially react positively tomorrow, however, some pullback may occur during the session as events unfold. But our overall view remains unchanged; we are still bullish on gold. This year's... Geopolitics is very different, tensions are much higher, and this Iranian attack could have macroeconomic repercussions, especially given the sharp rise in oil prices. Analysts warn this Middle East crisis may be different and advise against immediately buying any dips. According to Jinshi, the situation has become more chaotic as Iran launched missiles at US military bases in Gulf cities, airlines suspended flights, and oil tankers carrying oil and other products stopped passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Rong Ren Goh, portfolio manager of the fixed income team at East Asia Investment, said that tail risks in the Middle East have increased. The market will repric from geopolitical shocks to regime risk shocks and protracted conflict, not just retaliatory actions, unless Iran shows a willingness to negotiate. Analysts believe a greater risk lies in market complacency. The market has consistently assumed the impact of the conflict will be limited and has been reluctant to compare this conflict to the 1979 Iranian regime change. Barclays analysts stated that history powerfully demonstrates that one should not chase rallies during conflicts, but rather "sell the facts." Saxo Bank strategist: Escalation of US-Israeli military action against Iraq wouldn't surprise if gold hits a record high. According to Jinshi, Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank, stated that the US-Israeli military action against Iraq is undoubtedly a worrying escalation that will prompt investors to flock to precious metals and energy sectors. The extent of the impact is uncertain, but given last week's momentum, I wouldn't be surprised if gold hits a record high. Analyst: Gold will once again become the preferred safe-haven asset. According to Jinshi, Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCMTrade, stated that demand for gold is likely to be higher than usual when the market opens on Monday. Considering the potential duration of the conflict, which other countries might be drawn in, and inflation concerns, gold is expected to regain its position as the preferred safe-haven asset. Role. Stocks and other risky assets may be sold off, and investors will seek the best place to put their money, with gold likely to be at the top of that list. Iranian Foreign Minister: New Supreme Leader Could Be Elected in One or Two Days. According to Jinshi, the Iranian Foreign Minister stated that a new Supreme Leader could be elected in one or two days, and regime change is impossible. A 7-Month-Old Wallet Withdraws 384 PAXG from Binance, Worth $2.07 Million. According to OnchainLens monitoring, a 7-month-old wallet withdrew 384 PAXG from Binance, worth $2.07 million. Iran Launches 4 Missiles at US Aircraft Carrier. According to Jinshi, on the afternoon of March 1st local time, the Public Relations Department of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued Announcement No. 7. The announcement stated that the US aircraft carrier "Abraham Lincoln" was attacked by four Iranian ballistic missiles. SpaceX Hosts Approximately 8,285 Bitcoins on Coinbase Prime. According to Coindesk, data from on-chain platform Arkham Intelligence shows that SpaceX currently holds approximately 8,285 Bitcoins in its Coinbase Prime escrow account, worth about $545 million at the latest price. This represents a decrease of about $235 million from its valuation of about $780 million three months ago, during which time the company has not reduced its holdings. SpaceX's Bitcoin holdings have remained relatively stable at around 8,300 coins since the beginning of 2026, but the book value has fluctuated significantly due to the BTC price correction. Its BTC holdings peaked at nearly $2 billion at the end of 2021, followed by a decline during the 2022 bear market, and have fluctuated between $400 million and $800 million over the past two years. Data: RED, HYPE, ENA, and other tokens will see large-scale unlocking next week, with RED unlocking approximately $6.2 million. According to data from TokenUnlocks, several tokens including RED, HYPE, and ENA will undergo significant unlocking next week. Specifically: RedStone (RED) will unlock approximately 40.85 million tokens at midnight Beijing time on March 7th, representing 16.13% of its current circulating supply, worth approximately $6.2 million; Hyperliquid (HYPE) will unlock approximately 173,000 tokens at 8 AM Beijing time on March 6th, representing 0.04% of its current circulating supply, worth approximately $5.4 million; Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 40.63 million tokens at 3 PM Beijing time on March 2nd, representing 0.53% of its current circulating supply, worth approximately $4.3 million; and Optimism (OP) will unlock approximately 19.5 million tokens at 8 AM Beijing time on March 7th. (Note: The last sentence about banning paid cryptocurrency promotions is unrelated and appears to be a separate, unrelated statement.) Hive shows that the news that "X's latest 'Paid Partnership Policy' has included the cryptocurrency industry in X's list of industries prohibited from promotion" is old news. Historical webpages show that since at least June 27, 2024, cryptocurrency has been included by the X platform as an "industry that does not meet the qualifications for paid cooperation promotion." Paul Chan, Financial Secretary of Hong Kong, published a personal essay entitled "AI+ and Finance+ Promote Each Other," pointing out that we are currently at a critical juncture in technological innovation. Artificial intelligence is not only a core technology of the future, but also a huge force that can influence thousands of industries. Innovation in financial services itself further helps to expand the real economy and overcome pain points. Technological innovations such as AI and blockchain are constantly empowering financial services, creating a more efficient and convenient transaction system, and opening up new channels for different enterprises' trade, financing, and risk management activities.