According to data from Polymarket, as reported by Odaily, the probability of crude oil prices breaking $100 in March surged from a low of 35% yesterday to 76%, with trading volume exceeding $10 million. Previously, JPMorgan Chase stated that even a mere 3-4 weeks of disruption to passage through the Strait of Hormuz could force Gulf Cooperation Council member states to shut down oil production and push Brent crude prices above $100 per barrel.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are reportedly in talks with potential investors for a new round of funding, each targeting a valuation of approximately $20 billion. Sources familiar with the matter indicate that the two companies were valued at about half that level at the end of last year. As competition intensifies in the prediction market, both companies are accelerating their efforts to grow their user base and use this momentum to drive these new funding negotiations. (Wall Street Journal)

Huoxun Finance News, March 6th - According to Cointelegraph, US Democratic Senator Chris Murphy posted a video on the X platform stating that someone placed a "very specific bet" last Friday that "the US will go to war with Iran on Saturday." He pointed out that people close to Trump clearly knew about Saturday's actions in advance, and these bettors likely had inside information. Murphy warned that if such war betting continues, those around the president might "push us into war" because they could profit from it. Several related bets circulated widely on Polymarket last Saturday. Reuters reported that Murphy and Democratic Representative Mike Levin are drafting a bill to strengthen the regulation of prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi. Levin stated that profiting from the supposed foresight of military action "should absolutely be illegal." He pointed out that while commodity laws prohibit contracts involving events "against the public interest," such as war and terrorism, current rules give prediction markets too much freedom.

According to data from Polymarket, as reported by Odaily, the probability of OKX's IPO in 2026 has fallen from a high of 57% in early January to a current 17%, with trading volume exceeding $400,000. Previously, it was reported that ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, invested in OKX at a valuation of $25 billion. ICE declined to disclose the specific investment amount or terms, but emphasized the shared vision between the two companies.

According to data from Polymarket, as reported by Odaily, the probability of "Mojtaba Khamenei, son of Ayatollah Khamenei, becoming Iran's next Supreme Leader" once rose to 82%, but has since fallen back to 50%, with trading volume exceeding $5 million. Previously, it was reported that Trump stated he would not accept Khamenei's son succeeding him as Supreme Leader and that he would personally be involved in Iran's succession arrangements.

Huoxun Finance reported on March 5th that Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, announced an investment in cryptocurrency exchange OKX. This round values OKX at approximately $25 billion, and ICE will also acquire a board seat. OKX will provide ICE with real-time cryptocurrency price data and plans to open trading of on-chain stocks and derivatives listed on the NYSE to its 120 million users starting in the second half of 2026. ICE previously announced the construction of its own blockchain-based tokenized securities trading infrastructure and invested in the prediction market platform Polymarket. OKX previously reached a $500 million settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice regarding unlicensed money transfers and restarted its operations in the U.S. this year, stating it will expand its team in the U.S. for the aforementioned new products.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, has invested in cryptocurrency exchange OKX at a valuation of $25 billion. ICE declined to disclose the specific investment amount or terms, but emphasized the shared vision between the two companies. OKX will reportedly provide ICE with real-time cryptocurrency price data and plans to open trading of on-chain stocks and derivatives listed on the NYSE to its users starting in the second half of 2026. ICE previously announced the construction of its own blockchain-based tokenized securities trading infrastructure and invested in the prediction market platform Polymarket. OKX previously reached a $500 million settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice regarding unlicensed money transfers and restarted its operations in the U.S. this year, stating it will expand its team in the U.S. for the aforementioned new products. (Fortune)

Huoxun Finance reported on March 5th that, according to Bloomberg, prediction markets have experienced rapid growth over the past year, attracting widespread attention, including from traditional financial institutions. Currently, the main platforms in the industry include Polymarket, Kalshi, and Opinion, which are considered to constitute the main competitive landscape. The report points out that as the regulatory environment becomes clearer and trading demand around macro events and trending topics continues to grow, prediction markets are becoming an important new track at the intersection of the crypto industry and traditional finance.

Huoxun Finance reported on March 4th that, according to Lookonchain, a trader with the address 0xa53e, who joined the prediction market Polymarket on February 11th, has been consistently betting on contracts related to a "Russia-Ukraine ceasefire" and has been dubbed "Peacemaker." On-chain data shows that his cumulative bets on these contracts amount to approximately $99,600, with a current unrealized loss of about $11,300. The report indicates that if Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire, this trader is expected to turn a profit and achieve a positive return.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, trader 0xa53e (0xa53e8fc4c2f9910e584de69d8b40a502a638218d) has been betting on a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire since joining Polymarket on February 11, and has spent $99,600, currently suffering a floating loss of $113,000.

According to Odaily Planet Daily, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated that while it was previously estimated that traditional markets would take 5 to 10 years to migrate to on-chain on a large scale, the influx of investors into crypto platforms to trade tokenized assets during the US-Israel attacks on Iran and the closure of major global stock markets significantly accelerated expectations for the widespread adoption of "on-chain finance." The crypto perpetual contract platform Hyperliquid became a trading hub for real-world assets (RWAs) such as crude oil and tokenized gold. "For most of Sunday, on-chain finance was the center of global financial markets," data shows that Hyperliquid's combined trading volume exceeded $11.5 billion over Saturday and Sunday. Furthermore, Tether's tokenized gold product, Tether Gold, saw its 24-hour trading volume surge to over $300 million at one point, and prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket also experienced significant increases in trading volume. (Cointelegraph)

Huoxun Finance reported on March 3rd that, according to CoinDesk, Mike Selig, Chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), stated that the agency will release policies in the coming weeks to provide guidance for the compliant implementation of crypto perpetual contracts in the United States and to promote the launch of "professional-grade" perpetual futures in the U.S. He noted that the previous administration's regulatory approach pushed a large amount of liquidity and business offshore, and that a unified path is currently being pursued through "Project Crypto," a collaboration with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Selig also revealed that the CFTC will release "near-term" guidance on the regulatory approach for DeFi developers and prediction markets (such as Polymarket and Kalshi), and will begin a formal rulemaking process to provide a longer-term legal basis for its regulatory stance.

Huoxun Finance reported on March 3 that, according to on-chain monitoring platform Lookonchain, about an hour ago, a trader created a new anonymous wallet and spent approximately $25,676 betting that "Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31." According to Polymarket's real-time odds, the odds for this event have now risen to 77%.

According to Decrypt, a U.S. federal judge has remanded a lawsuit filed by Nevada against Kalshi and Polymarket to the state court, allowing regulators to seek a preliminary injunction. The court ruled that commodity exchange law does not fully supersede Nevada's gaming law claims, and therefore the federal court lacked subject-matter jurisdiction in the case. If Nevada obtains an injunction, Kalshi could be temporarily prohibited from offering event contracts to users in the state. Kalshi is considering an emergency appeal, while Polymarket has sought a stay of remand while preparing an appeal. Legal analysts point out that this ruling is a major setback for Kalshi, potentially forcing it to withdraw from a state market for the first time due to a court ruling, and could trigger similar actions in other states. If Kalshi is required to implement a territorial blockade in Nevada, it will weaken its argument in other lawsuits that territorial blockades would cause "irreparable harm."

A federal judge has remanded the Nevada case against Kalshi and Polymarket's parent company, Blockratize, to state court, ruling that the claims are primarily based on state law and that the Commodity Exchange Act does not completely exclude these claims. This means Nevada regulators can continue to seek a temporary injunction in state court, increasing the risk that Kalshi and Polymarket may be restricted from offering event contract trading in the state. The report states that Kalshi is evaluating an emergency appeal option, while Polymarket has applied for a stay of execution. Previously, Nevada had alleged that the event contracts in question required a license under state law and filed a lawsuit. (Decrypt)

Huoxun Finance News, March 3rd - According to on-chain cross-comparison analysis, the more than 500 suspicious addresses profiting in the Polymarket Khamenei betting platform are actually a systematic network controlled by a very small number of entities. Analysis of dimensions such as the number of common markets and directional consistency clearly identifies at least three highly correlated address clusters operating in concert. Some of these correlated addresses simultaneously placed bets in as many as 150 derivative betting platforms, demonstrating astonishingly consistent movement. They constructed a decentralized network through dozens of small bets of tens of dollars each to conceal their fund flows and evade risk control. Furthermore, comprehensive screening of abnormal data across eight dimensions revealed that the top 15 suspicious addresses alone obtained a total profit of up to $900,000 from this betting platform. Related reading: On-chain tracking of the Polymarket Khamenei betting platform: 521 addresses precisely lurking, a small number of entities precisely targeting and targeting.

According to data compiled by Gate Research on Dune, Polymarket has accumulated approximately $7.94 million in transaction fees since it began charging fees on select markets on January 6th, with approximately $4.99 million coming from February alone. Note: The markets for which Polymarket currently charges fees currently include "15-minute cryptocurrency price fluctuations" and sports markets such as Serie A and the NCAA.

According to data from Polymarket, as reported by Odaily, the probability of a ceasefire between the US and Iran by March 15th once rose to 64%, before falling back to 25%, with trading volume exceeding $800,000. Earlier reports indicated that Trump stated this morning that the war against Iran is expected to last four to five weeks, but could potentially longer.

Nasdaq plans to launch an options contract that allows "yes or no" bets on major stock indices, becoming the latest exchange operator to enter the rapidly growing prediction market. According to a proposed rule change submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the company hopes to list "binary options" on its flagship Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq 100 Mini indices. The filing shows that Nasdaq contracts will be priced between 1 cent and $1, reflecting market perceptions of the likelihood of a particular outcome. This will be Nasdaq's first foray into mirror prediction market products. These so-called "outcome-related options" will allow traders to take binary positions on whether a specific event occurs. Binary options are a simplified version of options contracts where payouts depend on the outcome of a "yes or no" proposition. The prediction market industry lists financial contracts covering sports, politics, and popular culture. Unlike event contracts regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) at Kalshi, Polymarket US, and the CME Group, binary options are regulated by the SEC. Nasdaq's contract is currently awaiting SEC approval. (Golden Ten)

Odaily Planet Daily reports that Polymarket traders have reduced their bets on regime change in Iran. According to the cryptocurrency prediction market's data, the probability of the Iranian regime collapsing before March 31st currently remains above 20%, lower than the approximately 40% probability when Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei was killed in an airstrike on Saturday. Currently, contracts for the regime's collapse have a trading volume exceeding $14 million. Furthermore, other contracts with later expiration dates show a 42% probability of the Iranian regime collapsing before June 30th and a 50% probability before the end of the year, with trading volumes of $5 million and $7 million respectively. Recently, Polymarket and its rival Kalshi have been embroiled in controversy over betting activities related to US attacks on Iran and the downfall of Ayatollah Khamenei. (WSJ)