According to Polymarket data, traders predict a 77% chance of another US government shutdown by the end of January, a probability that has risen 67% in the past 24 hours. This comes after US President Donald Trump indicated that another Democratic-led government shutdown is possible. This expectation increases uncertainty surrounding the CLARITY Act's legislative timeline, following Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and other executives withdrawing their support for the current version of the bill. Galaxy Digital's research director, Alex Thorn, stated that negotiations regarding stablecoin yields remain stalled, with neither side reaching a significant consensus on a compromise.

Huoxun Finance reported on January 25th that, according to CoinDesk, a senior official involved in formulating Ukraine's digital economy policy stated that Ukraine currently lacks a legal framework for Web3 prediction markets, and existing laws do not recognize such platforms. Days after Ukraine blocked Polymarket and nearly 200 gambling-related websites, Dmitry Nikolayevsky, chief legal officer of the Digital Economy Development Project Office of the Ukrainian Ministry of Digital Transformation, revealed that while the decision to ban Polymarket followed existing legal procedures, the fundamental problem lies in the country's legal framework's complete lack of recognition of prediction markets. Furthermore, legal reform is unlikely in the short term, as the possibility of the wartime parliament amending the definition of gambling is extremely low, leaving prediction markets in a legal deadlock.

According to Polymarket data, Rick Rieder's probability of being elected Federal Reserve Chair has risen to 59%, making him the frontrunner. Kevin Warsh's probability is currently at 27%, Kevin Hassett's at 5%, and Christopher Waller's at 6%. Related reading: "The Last Candidate for Fed Chair: Rick Rieder's Stance on Crypto?"

According to Lookonchain's monitoring, trader itscherry (0x1c37...18de) joined Polymarket back in July 2024 but had never traded before. Today, this user suddenly spent $46,600 betting that "Russia and Ukraine will not cease hostilities by the end of 2026".

According to Polymarket data, Odaily reports that Kevin Warsh's probability of being elected Federal Reserve Chair is currently at 45%, Rick Rieder's at 32%, Kevin Hassett's at 6%, and Christopher Waller's at 13%. Related reading: "The Last Candidate for Fed Chair: Rick Rieder's Stance on Crypto?"

According to Lookonchain monitoring, a newly created address named "trumpery" (0x622...b2f7) has invested $80,000 on Polymarket, betting that "Trump will acquire Greenland by 2027".

According to Odaily Planet Daily, Uniswap founder Hayden Adams pointed out in an article on the X platform that the prediction market Kalshi prices the "US acquisition of Greenland" at approximately 42%, while Polymarket prices it at only 15%–23%. This significant price difference is not due to differences in user groups, but rather to the differences in the specific betting targets themselves. If it were merely a difference in user structure, a trader with access to both platforms could quickly eliminate the price difference through arbitrage. However, the reality is that Polymarket prices the "probability of the event occurring within 2026 (currently around 23%)," while Kalshi prices the "probability of the event occurring throughout Trump's entire term (currently around 45%)." These are not the same event. Furthermore, differences in question wording, settlement conditions, oracle design, and different risk pricing logic all contribute to the price differences.

According to Polymarket data, Odaily reports that Kevin Warsh's probability of being elected Federal Reserve Chair is currently 53%, Rick Rieder's probability has risen to 27%, Kevin Hassett's probability has fallen to 5%, and Christopher Waller's probability is currently 11%. Related reading: "The Last Candidate for Fed Chair: Rick Rieder's Stance on Crypto?"

Huoxun Finance News, January 21 – According to Bloomberg, financial data provider UnusualWhales has launched a new tool to monitor unusual trading and potential insider betting on the prediction market platform Polymarket. This move stems from widespread allegations of insider trading on the platform following its accurate bets on events such as the Venezuelan coup attempt. The tool, named "UnusualPredictions," identifies users who may have privileged access to information by analyzing indicators such as traders' profitability, historical records, and betting timing.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that financial data provider Unusual Whales has launched a new tool to monitor unusual trading and potential insider betting on the prediction market platform Polymarket. This move stems from widespread allegations of insider trading on the platform following its accurate bets on events such as the Venezuelan coup attempt. The tool, named "Unusual Predictions," identifies users who may have privileged access to information by analyzing indicators such as traders' profitability, historical records, and betting timing. (Bloomberg)

According to Dune data, prediction market revenue exceeded $2.7 million in a single week, setting a new record. The opinion market accounted for 54.3% of this, while Polymarket's 15-minute price fluctuation market generated $787,000 in revenue, representing 28.4% of total revenue.

According to Polymarket data, only 17% of users believe that Trump's threat to impose all tariffs on Europe will take effect on February 1st. This market sentiment reflects the "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out) trading strategy, where investors bet that Trump will eventually abandon his tariff threats. Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank pointed out that the market "has more room for volatility," noting that the market has previously suffered losses due to overreacting to tariff threats. UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan believes the market is behaving rationally, and bond investors do not seem to be taking these threats too seriously. (Fortune)

Odaily Planet Daily reports that Hungarian regulator Szabályozott Tevékenységek Felügyeleti Hatósága has temporarily blocked the domain name and subdomains of the prediction market Polymarket, citing "organizing gambling activities as illegal." The restriction is expected to remain in effect until the regulator completes its review. Some users have reported being unable to access the Polymarket platform using Hungarian IP addresses. (Cointelegraph)

Huoxun Finance reported on January 20th that, according to CoinDesk, Portugal's betting regulator, SRIJ, has ordered the blockchain-based prediction market Polymarket to cease operations in the country within 48 hours. This comes after betting on the January 18th presidential election exceeded €103 million (approximately $120 million). The regulator pointed out that Polymarket does not hold a Portuguese betting license, and Portuguese law prohibits betting on the outcome of real-world events such as politics, allowing only sports, casino games, and horse racing betting. Polymarket is currently still accessible in Portugal, but the regulator may soon require internet service providers to block it.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, according to Odaily Planet Daily, beachboy4 (0xc2e...be51) made over $10.5 million in profits from five predictions within two days, recovering a previous loss of over $6.8 million, and currently has a cumulative profit of approximately $395,000. His single bet amount has increased from hundreds of thousands of dollars to over $3 million.

According to Huoxun Finance on January 19, White House economic advisor Hassett hinted that he is more likely to remain in his current position, essentially withdrawing from the race for Federal Reserve Chair. Data from Kalshi and Polymarket shows that former Governor Kevin Warsh's probability of being elected has risen to approximately 60%, ahead of Hassett (15%–16%) and current Governor Waller (13%–14%). Powell's term expires on May 15, and Trump is expected to announce his successor this month.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett stated that Trump is likely to keep him in his current position, which would disqualify him from the race to become the next Federal Reserve Chairman. Trump expressed reservations last week about nominating Hassett to succeed current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. At a White House event, he told the National Economic Council director, "To be honest, I actually hope you stay where you are." Hassett was once considered one of the leading candidates, alongside Fed Governor Christopher Waller, former Governor Kevin Warsh, and BlackRock executive Rick Rieder. According to sources, it is now seen as a four-way race, with Rieder's candidacy gaining momentum recently as some believe he may have a better chance of Senate confirmation. After Trump's remarks, traders on the prediction market website Kalshi raised Warsh's chances of getting the job to 60%, while Hassett and Waller's chances were only 16% and 14%, respectively. Polymarket traders also expressed similar sentiments, with Warsh receiving 60% support, Hassett 15%, and Waller 13%. Previously, Warsh and Hassett were neck and neck. Powell's term as Federal Reserve Chairman ends on May 15. The selection process was led by Bessett. "There are many excellent candidates, and the president is likely to make the right decision, believing that this is the best place for me right now," Hassett said on Sunday regarding the White House. He said he was "flattered and grateful" for Trump's comments about his future, calling the president "a really good person." Trump indicated he would appoint Powell's successor this month but did not provide a specific date. (Jinshi)

According to Huoxun Finance on January 18th, as monitored by OnchainLens, trader beachboy4 made a single-day profit of $6.12 million on Polymarket. The trader recovered almost all of his losses in one day, and the remaining losses are now reduced to $687,824.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, trader beachboy4 (beachboy4) made a single-day profit of $6.12 million on Polymarket. The trader recovered almost all of his losses in one day, and the remaining losses are now reduced to $687,000.

According to data from Polymarket, Odaily reports that Kevin Warsh's chances of being elected Federal Reserve Chairman are currently 57%, Kevin Hassett's are 15%, Christopher Waller's are 15%, and Rick Rieder's are [not specified].