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vitalik.eth

vitalik.eth

06-01 19:21
@VitalikButerin
@AndyGuzmanEth We should go a step further, and move beyond the USD index itself Have personalized per-user indices (think: consumer prices, labor prices, energy prices, rent) then do PMs/options over all of the above So combine https://t.co/efALVOuJjf and https://t.co/isSkr3901W
@VitalikButerin:Recently I have been starting to worry about the state of prediction markets, in their current form. They have achieved a certain level of success: market volume is high enough to make meaningful bets and have a full-time job as a trader, and they often prove useful as a supplement to other forms of news media. But also, they seem to be over-converging to an unhealthy product market fit: embracing short-term cryptocurrency price bets, sports betting, and other similar things that have dopamine value but not any kind of long-term fulfillment or societal information value. My guess is that teams feel motivated to capitulate to these things because they bring in large revenue during a bear market where people are desperate - an understandable motive, but one that leads to corposlop. I have been thinking about how we can help get prediction markets out of this rut. My current view is that we should try harder to push them into a totally different use case: hedging, in a very generalized sense (TLDR: we're gonna replace fiat currency) Prediction markets have two types of actors: (i) "smart traders" who provide information to the market, and earn money, and necessarily (ii) some kind of actor who loses money. But who would be willing to lose money and keep coming back? There are basically three answers to this question: 1. "Naive traders": people with dumb opinions who bet on totally wrong things 2. "Info buyers": people who set up money-losing automated market makers, to motivate people to trade on markets to help the info buyer learn information they do not know. 3. "Hedgers": people who are -EV in a linear sense, but who use the market as insurance, reducing their risk. (1) is where we are today. IMO there is nothing fundamentally morally wrong with taking money from people with dumb opinions. But there still is something fundamentally "cursed" about relying on this too much. It gives the platform the incentive to seek out traders with dumb opinions, and create a public brand and community that encourages dumb opinions to get more people to come in. This is the slide to corposlop. (2) has always been the idealistic hope of people like Robin Hanson. However, info buying has a public goods problem: you pay for the info, but everyone in the world gets it, including those who don't pay. There are limited cases where it makes sense for one org to pay (esp. decision markets), but even there, it seems likely that the market volumes achieved with that strategy will not be too high. This gets us to (3). Suppose that you have shares in a biotech company. It's public knowledge that the Purple Party is better for biotech than the Yellow Party. So if you buy a prediction market share betting that the Yellow Party will win the next election, on average, you are reducing your risk. Mathematical example: suppose that if Purple wins, the share price will be a dice roll between [80...120], and if Yellow wins, it's between [60...100]. If you make a size $10 bet that Yellow will win, your earnings become equivalent to a dice roll between [70...110] in both cases. Taking a logarithmic model of utility, this risk reduction is worth $0.58. Now, let's get to a more fascinating example. What do people who want stablecoins ultimately want? They want price stability. They have some future expenses in mind, and they want a guarantee that will be able to pay those expenses. But if crypto grows on top of USD-backed stablecoins, crypto is ultimately not truly decentralized. Furthermore, different people have different types of expenses. There has been lots of thinking about making an "ideal stablecoin" that is based on some decentralized global price index, but what if the real solution is to go a step further, and get rid of the concept of currency altogether? Here's the idea. You have price indices on all major categories of goods and services that people buy (treating physical goods/services in different regions as different categories), and prediction markets on each category. Each user (individual or business) has a local LLM that understands that user's expenses, and offers the user a personalized basket of prediction market shares, representing "N days of that user's expected future expenses". Now, we do not need fiat currency at all! People can hold stocks, ETH, or whatever else to grow wealth, and personalized prediction market shares when they want stability. Both of these examples require prediction markets denominated in an asset people want to hold, whether interest-bearing fiat, wrapped stocks, or ETH. Non-interest-bearing fiat has too-high opportunity cost, that overwhelms the hedging value. But if we can make it work, it's much more sustainable than the status quo, because both sides of the equation are likely to be long-term happy with the product that they are buying, and very large volumes of sophisticated capital will be willing to participate. Build the next generation of finance, not corposlop.
Grayscale

Grayscale

06-01 18:30
@grayscale
Hyperliquid A DeFi platform built on perpetual futures, now rivaling traditional exchanges. Spot, futures, and outcome markets in one place. US access could be the next catalyst for $HYPE Read the full article from @LowBeta on the Stack: https://t.co/uQEUE3w35R https://t.co/k0S5vGyZWh
vitalik.eth

vitalik.eth

06-01 16:03
@VitalikButerin
RT @AyaMiyagotchi: Vitalik shared his perspective on where @ethereumfndn is heading. Here is mine, another part of the same story. The EF Mandate from the board was something I proposed late last year. Two main things prompted me. First, debates that were meant to be technical had started to become political and personal, and at times shaped by quieter incentives. Second, as EF grew, more and more versions of "what EF should be" began pulling at the core of the organization from every direction at once. I became convinced that trying to satisfy all of them would leave us achieving nothing at all. It was time for us to restate our role and underlying principles clearly, both the parts that have been clear from the start and those that have been informed by over a decade of experience. We have said it many times: EF is one of many nodes in Ethereum. I know that is hard to hear for some, because EF was the first group, an
@AyaMiyagotchi:Vitalik shared his perspective on where @ethereumfndn is heading. Here is mine, another part of the same story. The EF Mandate from the board was something I proposed late last year. Two main things prompted me. First, debates that were meant to be technical had started to become political and personal, and at times shaped by quieter incentives. Second, as EF grew, more and more versions of "what EF should be" began pulling at the core of the organization from every direction at once. I became convinced that trying to satisfy all of them would leave us achieving nothing at all. It was time for us to restate our role and underlying principles clearly, both the parts that have been clear from the start and those that have been informed by over a decade of experience. We have said it many times: EF is one of many nodes in Ethereum. I know that is hard to hear for some, because EF was the first group, and in the early years it was essential for making things happen. But it was never meant to stay that way. I have been in crypto since 2012, before it became an "industry." I joined Kraken in 2013, shortly before the implosion of Mt. Gox, which I helped to clean up. I am very aware of how real growth works, and also aware of the real risks of centralization. So when I became ED in 2018, I understood that Ethereum growing beyond EF would be essential to fulfill its real promise as a public blockchain. The goal I set for myself was to ensure that this happens. The opposite path has always been untenable: Ethereum's future is too big for any single organization to bring about. So EF made deliberate choices to distribute power. We did incubate and release, like Uniswap and ENS. Support to seed a new norm, like ETHGlobal and the hackathons that are now everywhere. Funding the funders, like Gitcoin and Moloch. We always asked the same question: how does this stand on its own, without us? Those experiments, alongside the work of countless others, contributed to where we are today. Ethereum is now far bigger than anything EF could coordinate alone. EF now holds less than 0.2% of all ETH, and the return on all of that shared work, together with extraordinary people across the ecosystem, has been beyond anything we could have built by ourselves. That is exactly why a focused EF is possible now. The Mandate states simply the one thing EF must keep carrying: preserving and accelerating the properties and goals that keep Ethereum uniquely valuable, competitive, and worth building on. That is: CROPS - for the sake of inalienable user self-sovereignty and self-sovereign coordination. We cannot do it alone, and we do not intend to. But defining this as the north star for the mission, and coordinating with the allies who share it, is the responsibility we are keeping. None of this means EF stops caring about adoption, for everyday users or for institutions. The opposite is true: everything we do is ultimately for the people who use Ethereum. Supporting adoption, including institutional adoption, remains part of our work, pursued in the ways that fit our mission. The value proposition of Ethereum for both everyday users and institutions rests heavily on this. As EF becomes more focused and more opinionated, the team naturally becomes smaller and more concentrated. That is part of the choice. New leaders are already stepping into this mission and growing within it, and you will hear more from our management in the coming weeks, about what they are doing, and about the new structure and strategy taking shape. The mission we carry is not a smaller one, but a clearer one. Special thanks to those who have stepped in to support, defend and advance it.
vitalik.eth

vitalik.eth

06-01 16:03
@VitalikButerin
One of the many things I dislike about the style of "make AI go well" discourse from frontier AI companies is how nationalist the whole thing has gotten. In the 2010s, it was: "we're here to benefit all of humanity" In the 2020s, "we're here to benefit all of 4% of humanity" And even the Good People are buying into this frame completely😢 And they expect humanity to go along, because "come on, be a realistic adult, it's either us or Chiiina" or something like that (And on the EU side, you get "[X] with European values", which too often seems to mean "the same stuff they're doing, but with Us instead of Them in charge") Very big-dog-small-dog energy, morally speaking.
@Polymarket:NEW: Bernie Sanders proposes the government take 50% of OpenAI & Anthropic to give the public a “direct ownership stake.”
vitalik.eth

vitalik.eth

06-01 15:51
@VitalikButerin
RT @tcoratger: We’re currently putting a significant effort into improving leanSpec. The goals are simple: • Simplicity • Clarity • Correctness We are leanifying LeanSpec. If you have ideas around design, structure, or devex, now is a great time to reach out and help shape the project. 👇
@tcoratger:We’re currently putting a significant effort into improving leanSpec. The goals are simple: • Simplicity • Clarity • Correctness We are leanifying LeanSpec. If you have ideas around design, structure, or devex, now is a great time to reach out and help shape the project. 👇
vitalik.eth

vitalik.eth

06-01 15:31
@VitalikButerin
@llamaonthebrink If you guys succeed at building an oracle that is extremely robust under contention (of if @UMAprotocol themselves makes an improved design, which I would love to see!), then here's another use case for it: https://t.co/V8LCXIkcB2
vitalik.eth

vitalik.eth

06-01 15:28
@VitalikButerin
See also: the bottom half of this earlier post https://t.co/Y2jOdoltdT Moving away from fiat currency, and toward price stability through each person and institution getting their own customized basket.
vitalik.eth

vitalik.eth

06-01 15:28
@VitalikButerin
Building index-tracking assets on top of options instead of debt https://t.co/gFNEvCbHct What if the use options as the base of defi, instead of CDPs and liquidations? So instead of extreme price movements creating a sharp and global "you get liquidated" effect, instead your exposure to the index diverges quadratically from your preferred exposure in a smoother way? A key benefit is getting rid of the need for instant oracles, and instead making everything work on top of "slow oracles" (ie. the type that prediction markets use) This design has a significant downside - the need to do regular rebalancing - and an open question of whether and how this rebalancing can be made slippage-resistant enough. But it's worth considering and trying IMO. I would feel much safer holding algostables inside something like this, than in something that depends on an oracle that has to give real-time answers (and therefore could be tricked into giving wrong real-time answers with no time for human rec
vitalik.eth

vitalik.eth

06-01 14:08
@VitalikButerin
See also: my criticism of the idea that ZK alone, even if well implemented, is sufficient to make "identity verification" pro-freedom: https://t.co/rye1q5G90G (And some alternative ideas for how to solve underlying goals)
@mullvadnet:The EU age verification app is presented as “completely anonymous”. But the risk is that member states (the countries are supposed to create their own versions of the open-source EU app) use it to introduce identity verification that makes it impossible to post anonymously on social media. The idea behind “completely anonymous” is to use Zero-Knowledge Proof (ZKP) cryptography to break the link between the age credential issuer (EU governments) and the regulated services/sites. Currently, the EU app does not have ZKP functionality, contrasting Ursula von der Leyen’s claim that the app ”is technically ready to be used”. But more importantly, the app is designed to always function without ZKP technology; if ZKP is unavailable, the app falls back to a non-ZKP model. Even if fully developed ZKP technology could be implemented in the future, it would remain an optional extra feature that countries may choose to disable and that the EU could remove at any time. This means that the EU could decide at any time that ZKP may no longer be used, and in one stroke the app would fall back to its default mode, meaning that every post on social media carries an ID tag. By that point, an infrastructure will already have been rolled out; people will have gotten used to it, and it will be harder to roll it back. More details on https://t.co/wTVKHMS1zg
vitalik.eth

vitalik.eth

06-01 14:06
@VitalikButerin
RT @mullvadnet: The EU age verification app is presented as “completely anonymous”. But the risk is that member states (the countries are supposed to create their own versions of the open-source EU app) use it to introduce identity verification that makes it impossible to post anonymously on social media. The idea behind “completely anonymous” is to use Zero-Knowledge Proof (ZKP) cryptography to break the link between the age credential issuer (EU governments) and the regulated services/sites. Currently, the EU app does not have ZKP functionality, contrasting Ursula von der Leyen’s claim that the app ”is technically ready to be used”. But more importantly, the app is designed to always function without ZKP technology; if ZKP is unavailable, the app falls back to a non-ZKP model. Even if fully developed ZKP technology could be implemented in the future, it would remain an optional extra feature that countries may choose to disable and that the EU could
@mullvadnet:The EU age verification app is presented as “completely anonymous”. But the risk is that member states (the countries are supposed to create their own versions of the open-source EU app) use it to introduce identity verification that makes it impossible to post anonymously on social media. The idea behind “completely anonymous” is to use Zero-Knowledge Proof (ZKP) cryptography to break the link between the age credential issuer (EU governments) and the regulated services/sites. Currently, the EU app does not have ZKP functionality, contrasting Ursula von der Leyen’s claim that the app ”is technically ready to be used”. But more importantly, the app is designed to always function without ZKP technology; if ZKP is unavailable, the app falls back to a non-ZKP model. Even if fully developed ZKP technology could be implemented in the future, it would remain an optional extra feature that countries may choose to disable and that the EU could remove at any time. This means that the EU could decide at any time that ZKP may no longer be used, and in one stroke the app would fall back to its default mode, meaning that every post on social media carries an ID tag. By that point, an infrastructure will already have been rolled out; people will have gotten used to it, and it will be harder to roll it back. More details on https://t.co/wTVKHMS1zg
vitalik.eth

vitalik.eth

06-01 13:57
@VitalikButerin
There's probably under-claimed win-wins between the two groups. The problem is that the existing institutions for mediating the conflict are extremely high-friction. eg strawman: have a rule that buildings that are in the top 50 percentile of making neighborhood aesthetics types happy pay 0.1% less property tax, and the rest pay 0.1% more that would probably get you significantly better aesthetics, with very low cost to efficiency or freedom or dynanism or other good things? eg strawman 2: keep big pharma but make the incentives favor a much more open-science approach to safety and efficacy verification you get significantly better public trust, with very low cost to scientists being able to do their thing?
Andre Cronje

Andre Cronje

06-01 13:13
@AndreCronjeTech
This is with DN at 1.515x which is 4.743 Equity / Maintenance, safe level is 2, so can still at least double. Defi isn't dead, its just slow.
@DoctorDeFi:Flying Tulip on Sonic Network 🔹ftUSD - 7.15% 🔹USDC deposit on Lend: 10.87% Mint ftUSD with USSD/USDC https://t.co/W7UvkA4Fu8 Deposit USDC https://t.co/CSaleBP5bq
vitalik.eth

vitalik.eth

06-01 13:13
@VitalikButerin
This is why: * Self-sovereign identity, data and money (so you control your account, not a third-party provider) * CROPS AI (so other people cannot do this to *your computer* https://t.co/zmG8wrfzAi )
@weezerOSINT:meta gave their AI support agent the ability to modify your instagram account. no identity verification. people figured this out and accounts are being taken over right now https://t.co/60yRrImnaZ
Elon Musk

Elon Musk

06-01 02:08
@elonmusk
@Indian_Bronson Worked like a charm. Time to return to this approach.
Elon Musk

Elon Musk

06-01 02:07
@elonmusk
Glad they’re ok
@SawyerMerritt:This @Tesla Model 3 plunged 300 feet off a Malibu cliff this weekend and the two passengers survived with only moderate injuries. Tesla makes the safest vehicles. https://t.co/er88iTXN7W
Elon Musk

Elon Musk

06-01 02:06
@elonmusk
Good point
@beffjezos:Honestly Grok should be the best AI for creating bangers. Humans get good at posting from RL with Audience / Engagement Feedback Elon has the best dataset of rollouts for this by far And many people use Grok to create posts yet they don't backprop the engagement signal @xai
Elon Musk

Elon Musk

05-31 23:56
@elonmusk
This is simply a fact
@Mick_O_Keeffe:Foreign born population of each country : Jan 2001 Jan 2025 🇦🇹 8.7% 22.5% 🇧🇪 8.4% 20.2% 🇩🇰 4.8% 14.4% 🇫🇷 5.5% 14.0% 🇩🇪 8.9% 20.5% 🇬🇷 6.9% 11.0% 🇮🇸 3.1% 21.8% 🇮🇪 4.0% 23.3% 🇱🇺 37.5% 51.5% 🇳🇱 4.1% 16.8% 🇳🇴 4.1% 18.7% 🇸🇮 2.1% 15.5% 🇪🇸 3.4% 19.3% 🇸🇪 5.3% 20.8% 🇬🇧 4.3% 20.0% Now add children born to foreign parents and the situation looks even worse. We are living through the demographic annihilation of the people of Europe.
Elon Musk

Elon Musk

05-31 23:54
@elonmusk
@AngryBootneck True
Elon Musk

Elon Musk

05-31 23:49
@elonmusk
RT @ZiaYusufUK: I have written to the Chief Constable of Hampshire Police demanding the immediate release of the Henry Nowak police bodycam footage. National Police Chiefs' Council guidance does NOT preclude releasing body-cam footage where there is an ongoing investigation, stating: "It is important that forces are seen to be open and transparent when responding to allegations of wrongdoing" and that "police shouldn't create a perception that police are selectively choosing when to release footage to their advantage, thus potentially undermining public confidence". THIS IS NOT GOING AWAY.
@ZiaYusufUK:I have written to the Chief Constable of Hampshire Police demanding the immediate release of the Henry Nowak police bodycam footage. National Police Chiefs' Council guidance does NOT preclude releasing body-cam footage where there is an ongoing investigation, stating: "It is important that forces are seen to be open and transparent when responding to allegations of wrongdoing" and that "police shouldn't create a perception that police are selectively choosing when to release footage to their advantage, thus potentially undermining public confidence". THIS IS NOT GOING AWAY.
Elon Musk

Elon Musk

05-31 23:48
@elonmusk
@eladgil True
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