According to Odaily Seer, the probability of "Trump agreeing to ease sanctions on Iranian oil by the end of June" on Polymarket has risen to 87%, a 12% increase in 24 hours. The contract rules for this event are as follows: if the United States agrees to lift, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by 11:59 PM Eastern Time on June 30, 2026, it will be considered "Yes"; otherwise, it will be considered "No". Sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refer to restrictions imposed by the United States on the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, or petrochemical products (including transportation, insurance, and financial transactions related to such exports). The United States is deemed to have agreed to lift, suspend, waive, or reduce such sanctions if: 1. Trump or another authorized representative of the U.S. government publicly announces that the United States has finally agreed to lift, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil; 2. The lifting, suspension, waiver, or reduction of any such sanctions is incorporated into a formal treaty or agreement between the United States and Iran, including treaties or agreements reached through signing or other formal means. Trump posted on social media today: "A deal with Iran is in place. Congratulations! I hereby authorize free passage through the Strait of Hormuz and the immediate lifting of the U.S. Navy's blockade of Iran. Ships of the world, set sail. Let the oil flow!" Odaily Seer, the Prophet Channel, continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.

According to Odaily Planet Daily, Bernstein stated that Robinhood is poised for a "strong tailwind" as prediction market trading volume hits record highs during the World Cup. Data shows that daily trading volume in the FIFA World Cup prediction market surged from $2.2 billion on June 11th to $4.8 billion on June 12th, setting a new record and surpassing the $1.4 billion trading volume during the previous Super Bowl. Analysts point out that since its launch, the prediction market has become one of Robinhood's fastest-growing revenue lines. The agency projects that Robinhood's prediction market revenue will grow from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 286%, and is expected to account for 17% of trading-related revenue and 10% of total revenue in 2026. Bernstein believes that Robinhood's partnership with Rothera, an exchange and clearing house regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is one of its competitive advantages. Since its launch on May 28, Rothera has traded approximately 200 million contracts in 18 days, with FIFA World Cup and MLB-related contracts contributing nearly all of the trading volume. Analysts say Robinhood's core advantage lies in its distribution capabilities; its massive user base, $0.01 commission per contract, and up to 50% discounts for Gold members help drive user participation. Furthermore, Bernstein stated that competition in the prediction market is intensifying, including Polymarket's launch of private company event contracts and Kalshi's launch of cryptocurrency perpetual contracts. The firm predicts that the World Cup will bring over $3 billion in new betting volume to the prediction market and drive an increase of $5 billion to $10 billion in consumer trading volume across the industry. (The Block)

Huoxun Finance reports that Japanese cryptocurrency exchange Bitbank issued a risk warning regarding users' use of prediction market services such as Polymarket. The notice states that these platforms, which predict future events, elections, and sporting events based on cryptocurrency trading, are mostly operated by overseas institutions. Japanese users participating for financial gain may be violating local gambling regulations. Bitbank indicated that if it detects deposit and withdrawal records from these platforms in a user's account, it may suspend the account. Once suspended, the user will be unable to log in, trade, or deposit and withdraw cryptocurrency or Japanese yen, and the platform will not be liable for any related losses.

According to Lookonchain, Leeery Jenkins invested a total of $4.73 million on Polymarket, betting on Turkey not to win and Australia to bet 1.5 points. Both bets were successful, resulting in a profit of $5.2 million.

According to DefiLlama data, Polymarket's 24-hour revenue reached $1.18 million, surpassing Hyperliquid's $814,944. (Odaily Planet Daily)

According to Huoxun Finance, during the World Cup, the 24-hour revenue of prediction market platform Polymarket surpassed Hyperliquid for the first time, becoming the third largest crypto-related project after USDT issuer Tether and USDC issuer Circle.

According to Huoxun Finance, a coalition of prediction market platforms, including Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Polymarket, filed a lawsuit in state court this Friday seeking to block Kentucky's newly implemented 14.25% prediction market transaction tax. This tax, passed by the Kentucky legislature in April, targets platform transaction fees and is higher than the approximately 9.75% tax on the local horse racing industry. The plaintiffs claim the tax is discriminatory, unconstitutional, and may conflict with federal law. Prediction markets fall under the event derivatives market category, and the plaintiffs argue that the tax will increase compliance costs or force transactions to offshore, poorly regulated platforms. The Kentucky Attorney General stated he will firmly defend the law, while Kalshi claims that the high tax burden will weaken the competitiveness of legitimate markets and drive users to unregulated, illegal platforms. This case is the latest development in the conflict between the U.S. prediction market industry and state regulatory tax systems.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that prediction market platform Polymarket issued a "resolution clarification," overturning what appeared to be a settled market result. This resulted in a 20-year-old student's $35,000 prediction being invalidated, and approximately $3.8 million in positions across 1,838 accounts on the platform being wiped out. This clarification clause is written into the platform's rules, allowing for ex post facto interpretative corrections to market settlement results, thus altering the final payout. This incident has sparked strong dissatisfaction among traders, who believe that this "post-hoc reversal" mechanism undermines the certainty of market rules and has generated widespread controversy within the Polymarket and Kalshi communities. According to user disclosures, this incident originated from a case published on June 13th, where the market result appeared to have been settled but was subsequently reversed due to rule interpretation. Industry analysts believe that this type of mechanism introduces "resolution clarification risk" into prediction markets, representing an unhedged tail risk event. If such operations occur frequently, it could drive high-risk liquidity away from current platforms to exchanges regulated by the CFTC or with formal arbitration mechanisms. Furthermore, this incident is also considered one of a series of recent controversies, including the settlement dispute surrounding the UMA oracle and Strategy's Bitcoin-related markets, which continues to test market participants' trust in the "finality" of prediction markets. (Cryptobriefing)

Odaily Planet Daily reports that an industry coalition including Kalshi and Polymarket has filed a lawsuit to block the state of Kentucky from imposing a 14.25% transaction tax on prediction markets. This tax, passed by the Kentucky legislature in April, imposes a 14.25% sales tax on transaction fees charged to prediction market operators and is considered the first state-level tax specifically targeting this industry in the United States. The plaintiff, the Fair Markets Coalition, argues that the tax is discriminatory, unconstitutional, and may already be covered by federal law. The lawsuit points out that imposing a higher tax burden on prediction markets is clearly unfair and could distort the competitive structure of the market. (Abcnews)

According to the latest data from Huoxun Finance, the market has a 78% probability of predicting that SpaceX's market capitalization will exceed $2 trillion on its first day of trading, a 64% probability of exceeding $2.2 trillion, and a 19%-39% probability of reaching $2.4-2.6 trillion. SpaceX is about to go public, offering 555.6 million shares at $135 per share, raising $75 billion, making it the largest IPO in history. Based on the offering price, its market capitalization will reach $1.77 trillion, surpassing Tesla.

According to Huoxun Finance, the SPCX cryptocurrency derivative contract related to the SpaceX IPO rebounded on the decentralized exchange HyperLiquid, as market expectations for SpaceX's performance on its first day of trading have heated up again. Data shows that the SPCX contract traded between $176 and $183 on Friday, after falling to around $153 earlier this week, a significant rebound from Wednesday's level of around $157. Currently, the contract has an open interest of approximately $216 million, with a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $150 million. SPCX is a cash-settled derivative and does not represent holding SpaceX stock, placement rights, or corporate equity. However, given that SpaceX's IPO price was set at $135 per share, the contract is considered an important reference point for the market to gauge investors' expectations for the opening price on the first day of trading. Based on the current price of around $183, SPCX implies a premium of approximately 36% for SpaceX's first day of trading. Previously, in May, the contract rose to $216, corresponding to a premium of approximately 60% over the IPO price; earlier this week, when it fell to $157, the market expected the premium to narrow to approximately 16%. Other informal market signals also indicate a recovery in investor expectations. Related derivatives data shows the market implies a SpaceX valuation of approximately $2.4 trillion, more than 35% higher than the approximately $1.77 trillion valuation corresponding to the IPO pricing. Furthermore, Polymarket users currently give SpaceX a roughly 70% probability of closing with a market capitalization exceeding $2 trillion on its first day of trading. The SPCX had previously fallen by about 30% in recent weeks, reflecting traders' caution regarding SpaceX's IPO performance; the recent rebound suggests the market is re-indicating the potentially high valuation premium from the SpaceX IPO.

According to Odaily Seer, the probability of OG Anunoby winning the NBA Finals MVP on Polymarket has risen to 29%, a 26% increase in a single day, overtaking Wernbanyama to become second. Currently, Brunson's probability of winning the NBA Finals MVP is 49%, still in first place, while Wernbanyama's probability is 19%, dropping to third. Yesterday, Game 4 of the NBA Finals between the Spurs and the Knicks concluded, with the Spurs losing 106-107 on the road, trailing 1-3 in the series. In the final moments of the game, OG Anunoby's "God's right hand" tipped the ball into the basket, securing a victory for the Spurs. It is reported that New York City has declared June 11, 2026, as "OG Anunoby Thanksgiving Day." Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before prices are set.

According to Odaily Seer, in the Polymarket prediction event for the "2026 World Cup Group D Round 1: USA vs. Paraguay," a "smart money" account (address: 0x38f0b76ed812c24166a4f6293f991ac4b9972768) with a win rate exceeding 51% purchased over $500,000 in bets that the USA would not defeat Paraguay. The average opening price was 51.2¢, resulting in a floating profit of $12,600. The USA team has home advantage and previously defeated Paraguay in a friendly match in November 2025. Paraguay, under coach Gustavo Alfaro, returns to the World Cup after a 16-year absence, known for its solid defense and set-piece threat. Regarding injuries, Paraguay's key player Julio Enciso is doubtful due to a muscle problem, while USA defender Chris Richards is confirmed to be available. Odaily Seer continuously focuses on the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.

According to Huoxun Finance, host nation Mexico defeated South Africa 2-0 in the opening match of the World Cup, while the second match, South Korea vs. Czech Republic, is still underway. Data from OmenX, a native leveraged prediction market, shows that the trading volume related to the first Mexico vs. South Africa prediction match reached $1.4 million, and the trading volume for the second South Korea vs. Czech Republic match, which was still ongoing, had already reached $1.78 million. In comparison, Polymarket's trading volume for the first match was approximately $4.9 million, and the current volume for the second match is approximately $1.9 million. OmenX's sports prediction trading activity on the first day of the tournament is approaching the level of leading platforms. OmenX recently launched a new sports page, introducing a prediction market and themed activities around the World Cup, allowing users to engage in leveraged prediction trading on popular sports events such as match results and champion outcomes.

Odaily reports that Polymarket announced on its X platform that it will provide $1 million in liquidity rewards during the World Cup.

Odaily Seer's monitoring shows that in Polymarket's prediction event of "2026 World Cup Group A Round 1: South Korea vs. Czech Republic," a "smart money" account (address: 0x2b3ff45c91540e46fae1e0c72f61f4b049453446) with profits exceeding $1.2 million purchased over $360,000 worth of positions betting on South Korea defeating the Czech Republic, with an average opening price of 37.4¢ and a floating profit of $554. South Korea is a regular in the World Cup, with several players playing in Europe; the Czech Republic is returning to the World Cup after 20 years, and the team focuses more on physical confrontation and defensive organization. The two teams meet in the first round of the group stage, and the result will directly affect their respective qualification prospects in Group A. Odaily Seer continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before prices are set.

According to a report by consulting firm Crane Zeng, while some offshore prediction market platforms should theoretically block US users, US users may still contribute a significant amount of trading activity. The report estimates that US users trade between $11 billion and $34 billion in offshore prediction markets, representing 12.5% to 31.5% of the total US prediction market trading volume. Polymarket alone may contribute between $11 billion and $27 billion in related trading volume, an estimate the report considers "conservative." The report also predicts that if the relative share of regulated and offshore markets remains unchanged, US users' annual trading volume in offshore prediction markets could reach $133 billion by 2030. Prediction markets have grown rapidly in the past two years, with Kalshi and Polymarket being prime examples. Although the US CFTC has recently adopted a more lenient stance towards domestic prediction markets, unlicensed offshore platforms are still prohibited from providing services to US users. Polymarket was previously banned from operating in the US in 2022 for not registering to serve US clients.

According to a report released by investment firm Bernstein, the 2026 FIFA World Cup, expanding to 48 teams, will kick off in North America and is expected to generate up to $10 billion in consumer transactions and over $3 billion in incremental funding for sports betting and prediction markets. Bernstein analysts point out that this World Cup could be a turning point for prediction markets and online sports betting platforms, accelerating the development of platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Robinhood is leveraging this opportunity to commercialize its CFTC-licensed prediction market exchange, Rothera, while Binance, Coinbase, and other institutions are also offering World Cup contracts through partnerships. Currently, Spain and France are considered the favorites to win on the Myriad platform. (Decrypt)

According to Odaily Seer, Polymarket has added a new range prediction for SpaceX's (stock code: SPCX) official opening price on its first day of trading on Nasdaq. SpaceX plans to officially list on Nasdaq on June 12th (US time). According to its compliance filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in early June, the official offering price for the IPO is anchored at $135 per share, corresponding to a valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion. Although the offering price has been determined, market demand has driven traders' expectations of a "first-day pop" due to reportedly oversubscribed institutional orders exceeding $10 billion. However, given the high valuation multiplier of 90 times price-to-sales ratio and intense competition in the launch vehicle market, the opening premium may be relatively moderate. According to the settlement rules for this event, the market will strictly settle based on SpaceX's official opening price on its first trading day on a major exchange. If the final opening price falls exactly at the intersection of two ranges, the higher range will be used for settlement. Odaily Seer continuously focuses on the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.

Odaily Planet Daily reported on June 11th that Game 4 of the 2026 NBA Finals between the Knicks and Spurs has concluded, with the Knicks narrowly defeating the Spurs 107-106, taking a 3-1 lead in the series and securing a championship point. With this game settled, the focus of the prediction market has shifted to the upcoming Game 5. Game 5 will officially begin on June 14th at 08:30 (UTC+8). According to the latest data from Gate.com's prediction market, the Spurs have approximately a 65% chance of winning Game 5, while the Knicks have approximately a 36% chance. Furthermore, Gate.com is launching the "Green Field Prophet, World Cup Prediction Carnival" event from June 4th to July 21st, covering all 104 matches of the 2026 World Cup, with a total prize pool exceeding 500,000 USDT. Users can participate in various activities including match predictions, champion predictions, trading tasks, points rankings, and community interaction. The first match, Mexico vs. South Africa, will officially kick off on June 12th. Gate's prediction market shows Mexico as the favorite with a 69% probability. As the first CEX platform to integrate with Polymarket, Gate maintains a leading position among Polymarket's partner channels, ranking second with a single-day trading volume of $5.8 million on June 10th. Users can directly access the prediction market through the Gate App, entering the Polymarket page from the platform's homepage alpha, and participating in event predictions using USDT from their exchange accounts. Gate is continuously expanding its influence in the prediction market field, providing users with a diversified market experience from prediction to trading participation.