According to Huoxun Finance, the probability of the "Strategy selling Bitcoin before the end of the year" event on Polymarket briefly rose to 40%, a 29% increase within 24 hours. The settlement of this event is primarily based on official information from MicroStrategy and on-chain data, while also considering consistent reporting from mainstream media. The market is currently focused on MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holding strategy and Michael Saylor's recent statement regarding the "possible sale of some Bitcoin to pay dividends," which he stated was to demonstrate the feasibility of the strategy to the market.

According to Odaily Seer, the probability of MicroStrategy selling Bitcoin before December 31, 2026, briefly rose to 40% on Polymarket, a 29% increase in 24 hours. This prediction is primarily based on official MicroStrategy information and on-chain data, while also considering mainstream media reports. Currently, the market is closely watching MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holding strategy and Michael Saylor's recent statement about potentially selling some Bitcoin to pay dividends. Odaily previously reported that Michael Saylor indicated he might sell some Bitcoin to pay dividends to demonstrate the strategy's viability. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, anticipating changes before pricing.

According to Odaily Seer, an account (address: 0x6a72f61820b26b1fe4d956e17b6dc2a1ea3033ee) with a cumulative profit exceeding $12 million in the Polymarket prediction event for "NBA Western Conference Semifinals Game 1: Thunder vs. Lakers," purchased $133,000 worth of bets on the Thunder giving a 15.5-point advantage to the Lakers, with an average opening price of 50¢. Game 1 of the NBA Western Conference Semifinals between the Thunder and the Lakers started at 8:30 AM Beijing time today. The first quarter has ended, with the Thunder leading 31-26. Lakers star Luka Doncic is absent from today's game. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, anticipating changes before prices are set.

Odaily Seer's monitoring shows that in Polymarket's "Will the US Invade Iran Before 2027?" prediction event, an account (address: 0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35) purchased $370,000 worth of "Will the US Invade Iran Before 2027?" positions at an average opening price of 72¢. The settlement rules for this prediction event are: if the US launches a military offensive aimed at controlling any part of Iran before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on December 31, 2026, the market will mark it as "Yes". Otherwise, the market will mark it as "No". Last night, US President Trump stated, "We have completely destroyed the Iranian military. Iran has no chance. They never have. They know that themselves, and they told me on the phone." Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.

Odaily Seer's monitoring shows that in the Polymarket prediction event for "NBA Western Conference Semifinals Game 1: Thunder vs. Lakers," an account with a winning percentage over 55% (address: 0xc8075693f48668a264b9fa313b47f52712fcc12b) purchased $160,000 worth of bets on a total score of less than 214.5 for the Thunder and Lakers, with an average opening price of 52.2¢. Game 1 of the NBA Western Conference Semifinals between the Thunder and Lakers will tip off at 8:30 AM Beijing time tomorrow. The Lakers have a 0-4 record against the Thunder this season, losing by an average of 29 points. Furthermore, Lakers star Luka Doncic will miss tomorrow's game. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before prices are set.

According to Odaily Seer, an account (address: 0x1117eade222413335b7ec959e5b48c1d3dbc3532) that lost over $1.1 million in the Polymarket prediction event for "NBA Western Conference Semifinals Game 1: Thunder vs. Lakers," purchased $100,000 worth of bets on the Thunder to win by a 15.5-point spread against the Lakers, at an average opening price of 50¢. Game 1 of the NBA Western Conference Semifinals between the Thunder and the Lakers will tip off at 8:30 AM Beijing time tomorrow. The Lakers have a 0-4 record against the Thunder this season, losing by an average of 29 points. Furthermore, Lakers star Luka Doncic will miss tomorrow's game. Odaily Seer continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before prices are set.

According to Odaily Planet Daily, the prediction market Predict.fun has launched a new prediction event, "When will Polymarket launch its official token?", with a current trading volume of $546,800. The probabilities of Polymarket launching its official token before June 30, 2027 are currently estimated at 88%; before March 31, 2027 at 77%; before December 31, 2026 at 55%; before September 30, 2026 at 39%; and before June 30, 2026 at 9%. The settlement rules for this event are: if Polymarket officially launches its official token before the date indicated in the title (11:59 PM Eastern Time), the market will mark it as "Yes". Otherwise, the market will mark it as "No". Even if a Polymarket-issued token initially lacks utility and isn't explicitly labeled a "governance" token, it's acceptable as long as it's advertised and presented as the official token of a Polymarket product. The token must be publicly and actively transferable and tradable. Simply issuing an announcement is insufficient. Tokens available only for collection are also unacceptable. ERC-1155 or ERC-20 tokens used to represent CTF shares or other user positions in the in-product market, as well as any USD-pegged collateral tokens, are not eligible for settlement. Sources must be official Polymarket statements (including blog posts, social media channels, or documentation). Trusted third-party reports may also be consulted if necessary. Previously, Mustafa (@mustafap0ly), a member of the Polymarket team, hinted in a community interaction today that progress regarding the POLY token may be imminent.

According to Odaily Seer, in the Polymarket prediction event for the "League of Legends Esports World Cup Qualifier: HLE vs. DNF," an account with a 61% win rate (address: 0x7714c16f86bcfdba47bfcb161dc39a2a1ff2b814) purchased $43,000 worth of HLE betting against DNF, with an opening price of 93¢. The match starts at 16:00 today. The 2026 Esports World Cup will be held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia this July. League of Legends is included for the third consecutive year, with 16 teams participating, including regional champions, qualifier teams, and the 2025 EWC champion, for a total prize pool of $2 million. Odaily Seer continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.

According to Odaily Planet Daily, Polymarket's new VP of Engineering, Josh Stevens, stated on the X platform that with the launch of the Deposit Wallets feature, the percentage of ghost fills has dropped from a peak of 30% to 0.17%, and will continue to trend towards 0% throughout the day.

According to Odaily Seer, an account (address: 0x492442eab586f242b53bda933fd5de859c8a3782) that lost over $2.8 million in the Polymarket prediction event for "NBA Western Conference Semifinals Game 1: Spurs vs. Timberwolves," purchased $103,000 worth of bets on the Spurs giving a 10.5-point advantage to the Timberwolves 40 minutes ago, with an average opening price of 51¢. Game 1 of the NBA Western Conference Semifinals between the Spurs and Timberwolves started at 9:30 AM Beijing time today, with the Timberwolves currently leading 29-23. Spurs star Wernbarman played 9 minutes in the first quarter and has only scored 2 points so far. Odaily Seer continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before prices are priced in.

According to Huoxun Finance, Mustafa, a member of the Polymarket official team, hinted in a community interaction that progress regarding the POLY token may be coming soon. When a user inquired about when they could stake POLY tokens to reduce taker fees or potential future order placement fees, Mustafa replied, "Soon."

Odaily Planet Daily reports that Mustafa (@mustafap0ly), a member of the Polymarket official team, hinted in a community interaction that progress related to the POLY token may be coming soon. A user asked when they could stake POLY tokens to reduce taker fees or potentially future order placement fees. Mustafa replied, "Soon."

Odaily Seer's monitoring shows that in the Polymarket prediction event for "NBA Western Conference Semifinals Game 1: Spurs vs. Timberwolves," an account with over $1.6 million in profits (address: 0x93abbc022ce98d6f45d4444b594791cc4b7a9723) purchased $170,000 worth of bets on the Spurs defeating the Timberwolves, with an average opening price of 77¢. Game 1 of the NBA Western Conference Semifinals between the Spurs and the Timberwolves will tip off at 9:30 AM Beijing time today. Spurs player Carter Blaint will be absent from this game; Timberwolves players DiVincenzo and Dossum will be absent, but Edwards has received medical clearance and is expected to return today. Odaily Seer continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before prices are set.

Odaily Seer's monitoring shows that in the Polymarket prediction event for "NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals Game 1: Knicks vs. 76ers," an account (address: 0x492442eab586f242b53bda933fd5de859c8a3782) that lost nearly $3 million purchased $230,000 worth of bets on the Knicks to win by a 7.5-point spread against the 76ers, with an average opening price of 51¢. Game 1 of the NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals between the Knicks and 76ers will tip off at 8:00 AM Beijing time today. The Knicks' starting lineup is Anunoby, Hart, Towns, Bridges, and Brunson; the 76ers' starting lineup is George, Oubre, Embiid, Edgecombe, and Maxi. Odaily Seer continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket has officially launched its Deposit Wallets feature, automatically providing new registered users with a dedicated deposit address. As this feature is rolled out more widely, the current "ghost fills" issue is expected to decrease. The team is continuously monitoring system performance to ensure stable operation.

According to Huoxun Finance, the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid has officially launched HIP-4 event contracts. On its first trading day, the product's nominal trading volume reached 6.05 million contracts, accounting for approximately 0.7% of the total prediction market volume that day. In comparison, mainstream prediction market platforms still significantly outperformed in terms of trading volume on that day: Kalshi approximately 546 million contracts, Polymarket approximately 190 million contracts, Limitless approximately 68.26 million contracts, Crypto.com approximately 28.2 million contracts, Opinion approximately 25.72 million contracts, and Predict.fun approximately 11.8 million contracts. Data shows that although Hyperliquid's initial entry into the event contract market was relatively small, it has achieved a cold start in trading volume, marking its official entry into the prediction market competition landscape. In the short term, leading platforms still hold an absolute liquidity advantage, and subsequent growth will depend on product design and user migration capabilities.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has received over 1,500 public comments on proposed rules related to prediction markets, indicating a continued escalation of regulatory discussions in this area. The comments reveal significant disagreements regarding the compliance boundaries, product attributes, and regulatory positioning of prediction markets, suggesting that subsequent rule development may be a key variable in the industry's future. Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have expressed support for the regulatory framework, believing it will contribute to the industry's standardization; however, some participants are calling for stricter regulatory and enforcement measures to prevent potential risks. (Cointelegraph)

According to data released by Predictefy, since Hyperliquid launched its event contracts (prediction market) product, the trading volume of Bitcoin price-related event contracts on the platform has surpassed that of Kalshi, Polymarket, and all other prediction markets within the same time frame. Hyperliquid launched its event contract market yesterday, with the first market being a daily settled Bitcoin price performance market.

According to data posted by Predictefy, as reported by Odaily Planet Daily, since Hyperliquid launched its event contracts (prediction market) product, the trading volume of Bitcoin price-related event contracts on the platform has surpassed that of similar markets on Kalshi, Polymarket, and all other prediction markets within the same time frame. Previously, it was reported that Hyperliquid launched its event contracts market yesterday, with the first market being a daily settled BTC price performance market.

According to Odaily Seer, the probability of Polymarket predicting that WTI crude oil will fall to $95 in May 2026 rose to 88% this morning and is currently at 81%, up 8% in the last 24 hours. The event contract rules state that if the highest price of any 1-minute candlestick chart for the active month of WTI crude oil futures during May 2026 is equal to or higher than the listed price, the market will declare it "yes"; otherwise, it will declare it "no." The price will be based on the price published by Polymarket, without rounding. Previously, the rules for the March WTI crude oil price prediction event contract were: if the official settlement price of the current active month (near-month) of the CME crude oil futures contract on any trading day is equal to or higher than the listing price up to the last trading day of March 2026, the market will declare it "yes"; otherwise, it will declare it "no." Trump has pledged to safeguard ships in the Strait of Hormuz and announced "Project Freedom," which will help ships leave the Strait of Hormuz starting this week, and is actively negotiating with Iran. Meanwhile, U.S. Central Command announced it would support "Operation Freedom," aimed at restoring freedom of navigation for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and providing support for merchant ships seeking free passage through this vital international trade corridor. Odaily Seer continues to focus on predictive markets, seeing changes before pricing.