According to BlockBeats, on July 24th, the prediction market platform Polymarket predicted a 13% probability that Bitcoin would rise to $70,000 in July. Additionally, the probability of it rising to $75,000 was 1%, and the probability of it falling to $60,000 was 14%.

According to BlockBeats, on July 24th, the long-awaited CLARITY Act for the US crypto industry suffered another setback. With Senate Majority Leader John Thune stating that the bill is not expected to be voted on before the August recess, market expectations for its passage this year have significantly decreased.

According to Polymarket data, as of July 24, the probability of the CLARITY Act passing this year is about 37%, far lower than the level that once exceeded 80% this spring.

The Clarity Act aims to establish a clear regulatory framework for digital assets and promote their integration into the mainstream financial system. While there is some bipartisan consensus on the core content of the bill, the conflict of interest surrounding US President Trump and his family's crypto business has become a major obstacle in legislative negotiations.

Democrats are demanding that the bill include stricter ethical provisions to restrict the president and federal officials from profiting from crypto assets. Trump had previously explicitly opposed such restrictions, but Republicans have recently changed their stance and submitted a new draft bill that includes provisions prohibiting elected officials from profiting from crypto asset trading.

However, Democrats believe that the new ethics clause has obvious loopholes and cannot effectively address the issue of the Trump family's huge profits from crypto projects such as Memecoin.

Ron Hammond, head of policy at crypto firm Wintermute, said that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s recent call for Democrats to focus their political offensive on Trump and related corruption ahead of the midterm elections could reduce their willingness to support the CLARITY Act.

Hammond believes that opponents in the banking and crypto industries have slowed the bill's progress by delaying the process, but he still stated, "The votes are already in place; it's just that electoral politics have a greater influence."

Analysts point out that even if the CLARITY Act fails to pass before the current recess, there is still a window of opportunity before Congress closes at the end of the year. However, due to unresolved issues such as government funding and defense, the bill, championed by the crypto industry, may face pressure from the agenda. With the November midterm elections approaching, future changes in the power structure of the US Congress could further impact the progress of crypto regulatory legislation.

According to PolyBeats , SpaceX has just released a live stream page for the 13th test flight of its Starship spacecraft, showing the live stream will start at 6:14 AM (UTC+8) on the 24th. On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "SpaceX launching Starship today (the 23rd local time)?" is currently 64%, and the probability of a launch this month has reached 91%.

Starship Flight 13 was aborted automatically about one second before leaving the launch pad after ignition on the morning of July 17.

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has continued to list SpaceX's Starship 13th flight test as a scheduled mission in its latest operations plan released today. Flight 13 is expected to launch as early as 5:45 PM Texas time (06:45 AM Beijing time on July 24), with the 90-minute launch window lasting until 08:15 Beijing time. The Next Spaceflight live page shows that all 19 launch readiness conditions, including rocket testing, stacking, airspace notifications, and maritime warnings, have been met, and no new technical glitches or delays have been announced.

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BlockBeats reports that on July 23, US President Trump stated he is seriously considering resuming major military action against Iran. Iran "wants negotiations," but is not yet ready to reach an agreement. They haven't suffered enough. (Axios)

According to PolyBeats, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "whether the United States will invade Iran (mass ground offensive) before 2027" has risen slightly to 30%.

According to BlockBeats, on July 23, Bitget data showed that WTI crude oil surged 5% intraday, currently trading at $91.25 per barrel. Brent crude oil is currently up 3.5%, trading at $93.83 per barrel.

As of early this morning, the U.S. military has launched a new round of strikes against Iran for the 12th consecutive night. Targets include Iranian naval combat capabilities, missile and drone storage facilities, coastal surveillance sites, and air defense assets.

According to PolyBeats , on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of WTI crude oil reaching $110 on a single day this month is 34%, the probability of reaching $110 is 10%, and the probability of reaching $130 is 4%.

BlockBeats reported on July 22nd, citing Reuters, that prediction market platform Polymarket stated it will challenge the French regulator's decision to block its website through legal proceedings. Polymarket expressed disappointment at the regulator's sudden and unilateral action.

France last week asked local internet service providers to block Polymarket, citing concerns that the platform could cause significant losses to users and that parts of the marketplace are at risk of manipulation.

As prediction markets rapidly gain popularity, regulators in various countries are increasing their scrutiny. In May of this year, the Spanish government temporarily banned Polymarket and its competitor Kalshi from operating in the country; in June, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission released a new draft regulation for the prediction market industry.

According to BlockBeats, on July 22, the U.S. House Agriculture Committee's Subcommittee on Commodity Markets, Digital Assets, and Rural Development held a hearing to discuss how the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) can strengthen its regulation of prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, and the potential role of the Clarity Act for Digital Asset Markets.

Carl Kennedy, a partner at the New York law firm Katten Muchin Rosenman, stated at the hearing that the CFTC is currently understaffed and struggling to effectively regulate the rapidly growing prediction market and digital asset sector. He believes that if the CLARITY Act is passed, it will grant the CFTC more regulatory authority and help it address the "explosive growth" of prediction markets.

Currently, CFTC Chairman Michael Selig argues that event contracts in the prediction market fall under the scope of swaps regulated by the Commodity Exchange Act, and therefore should be exclusively regulated by the CFTC. This position has sparked jurisdictional disputes between federal and state regulators, with several states previously filing lawsuits against Kalshi and Polymarket regarding the sports prediction market.

Market participants expect that the case may eventually be submitted to the U.S. Supreme Court to clarify the division of authority between the federal and state governments in regulating the forecasting market.

Furthermore, Republican lawmakers stated their intention to push for a vote on the CLARITY bill before Congress adjourns in August and will release the text of the bill soon. In June of this year, U.S. gaming industry organizations called for an explicit ban on contracts related to sporting events and casino betting in the CLARITY bill.