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Market Trends Trading Insights Data Broadcast New Listing Alert Prediction Market

Polymarket's World Cup title prediction market trading volume surpasses $3.9 billion, with France's probability of winning rising to 35.1%.

Source: 星球日报

According to data from Polymarket, as reported by Odaily Planet Daily, the cumulative trading volume in the 2026 World Cup champion prediction market has exceeded $3.9 billion. France's probability of winning has risen to 35.1%, corresponding to a trading volume of over $94.5 million; Argentina ranks second with 16.8%, with a trading volume of $99.99 million; and Spain ranks third with 12.3%.

Smart money collectively bet on Mexico failing to win in regular time, with TOP holding addresses accumulating a total profit of $20.3 million.

Source: 星球日报

Pre-match positioning data from the PPP prediction market tool shows that in the Polymarket "World Cup Round of 16 Mexico vs. England" prediction event, multiple addresses bet against Mexico's chances of winning in regulation time. The top 5 addresses had total profits of $360,000, $350,000, $2.3 million, $650,000, and $16.7 million, respectively. Odaily Seer continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.

On Polymarket, the probability of "LeBron James joining the Cavaliers" has surged to 58%, a 19% increase in the last 24 hours.

Source: 星球日报

According to PPP's prediction market tool, in the Polymarket's multi-option prediction event of "Which team will LeBron James play for next season?", the probability of him joining the Cleveland Cavaliers has surged to 58%, a 19% increase in 24 hours, while the probability of him joining the Philadelphia 76ers has dropped to 7%, a 12% decrease in 24 hours. According to a photo posted by ESPN Cleveland, LeBron James had a gathering with his high school teammates on the evening of July 4th, but Cavaliers assistant general manager Brandon Weems was also seen in the photo. Furthermore, according to renowned sports reporter Marc Stein, the possibility of LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers reuniting for the second time is rapidly increasing. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing them in.

Polymarket has a new post titled "Will the US government revoke public access to another major AI model?"

Source: 星球日报

According to Odaily Planet Daily, the PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that Polymarket has added a new question: "Will the US government revoke public access to another major AI model?", with a current probability of 33%. Previously, the US government's ban on Anthropic's Fable 5 model was interpreted by the market as a security blockade of key AI model technology, triggering panic in the AI industry. The settlement rules state: if the US federal government passes relevant legislation, issues an executive order, implements export controls, or takes any other measures that substantially restrict public access to a major artificial intelligence model by the end of 2026, the market result will be "Yes". Otherwise, the market result will be "No". A "qualifying action" refers to a formal measure taken by the US government that is equivalent to a complete ban on public access to a particular artificial intelligence model within the United States. Furthermore, the settlement rules emphasize that regardless of the true purpose or nominal goal of the action; if an action actually prevents the public from accessing the model within the United States—for example, prohibiting the model from being provided to foreign citizens or governments—it qualifies as long as the general public cannot access the model through regular channels within the United States. Simply excluding access to a model from a single source is insufficient. Removals that fall under public access rights and are not the result of any formal action by the U.S. government are ineligible. "Mainstream AI models" refers to flagship, general-purpose large language models or multimodal foundational models developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Models specific to a particular task, or those that are outdated and used only for research or preview purposes, do not qualify. The action can target a single model or a group of models, as long as at least one significant AI model is consequently blocked from public access within the United States. Temporarily blocking public access to a model qualifies. However, if an action has been implemented or a resolution has been issued, but the model remained publicly accessible until the resolution took effect, then the action does not qualify. Information for this market is sourced from official information and announcements from the U.S. government and relevant AI companies. However, it's also possible to reach a consensus by referring to reliable reports. Odaily Seer continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.

A former Polymarket team member stated that the POLY token will not be launched in the short term and may require a long wait.

Source: 星球日报

According to Odaily Planet Daily, in response to community user analysis suggesting that Polymarket might launch the POLY token in the fourth quarter of this year (or 2028), former Polymarket team member Greg responded that "the POLY token will not be launched in the short term; it may take a long time." Furthermore, Greg stated that Polymarket's early promotion of the token was purely a marketing tactic, but he has since deleted his tweet mentioning "marketing."

The probability of the Clarity Act being signed into law in 2026 has risen to 52%.

Source: 区块律动

According to BlockBeats, on July 5th, data from Polymarket showed that the probability of the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026 rose to 52%, an increase of 12 percentage points from July 3rd.

In terms of news, the Major County Sheriffs Association (MCSA) stated that it no longer opposes the Clarity Act after initially expressing concerns about how the bill would affect investigations into illicit finance. Analysts believe that the MCSA's change of stance reduces a key obstacle in the Clarity Act's progress, increasing its likelihood of reaching the Senate vote. However, opposition from the banking industry to stablecoin yield products and DeFi regulation remains a major uncertainty.

A smart money investor purchased approximately $200,000 worth of tickets for the World Cup match between Brazil and Norway, with a total of more than 2.5 goals in regulation time.

Source: 星球日报

PPP's market prediction tool monitoring shows that in Polymarket's "2026 World Cup Round of 16 Brazil vs. Norway" prediction event, an account with a total profit of nearly $16.68 million (address: 0x204f72f35326db932158cba6adff0b9a1da95e14) purchased approximately $200,000 worth of bets on the match having more than 2.5 goals in regulation time, with an average opening price of $54.5, and currently has a floating profit of $10,980. Norway defeated Ivory Coast 2-1 in the last round, advancing to the World Cup knockout stage for the first time in history thanks to Haaland's winning goal, boosting the team's morale. It's worth noting that Norway remains undefeated in their historical encounters with Brazil, further increasing the uncertainty of this match. Brazil's recent defensive instability has been lacking, while Norway, relying on a tight defense and set-piece threats, has the ability to create upsets. In the context of a single-elimination match, a draw leading to extra time or a Norwegian upset victory are both possibilities, and the total number of goals is expected to exceed 2.5. Odaily Seer continuously focuses on the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.

Kalshi's trading volume hit a record high of $9.4 billion in June, with the World Cup driving a surge in prediction market trading.

Source: 区块律动

According to BlockBeats, on July 5th, driven by the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the trading volume of the US prediction market platform Kalshi rose to approximately $9.4 billion in June, an increase of nearly 77% from approximately $5.3 billion in May, setting a new record. During the same period, Polymarket International's trading volume increased from approximately $3.5 billion to approximately $4.3 billion.

Data shows that the World Cup has become a major catalyst for growth in prediction market trading. With the World Cup expanding to 48 teams for the first time, the increased number of matches and knockout stage scenarios has boosted trading activity for single-match contracts. For example, the Round of 16 match between Canada and Morocco saw trading volumes exceeding $48 million on Kalshi and $26.8 million on Polymarket.

However, the rapid growth in trading volume has further fueled regulatory controversy. Several U.S. states continue to argue that sports event contracts should be regulated under betting regulations, rather than the derivatives market regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Meanwhile, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) recently warned that some event contracts may already fall under the existing binary options regulatory framework.

Analysts believe that the World Cup has validated the ability of prediction markets to attract liquidity during major events, but whether sports prediction contracts should be subject to financial derivatives regulation or betting regulation remains a core regulatory issue for the industry.

On Polymarket, the probability of "BLG achieving a 'Golden Road' (Grand Slam)" has risen to 21%, an 8% increase in the last 24 hours.

Source: 星球日报

According to PPP's prediction market tool, the League of Legends Mid-Season Invitational (MSI) World Championship has officially started. The probability of the "BLG achieving a Golden Road (Grand Slam)" event on Polymarket is currently reported at 21%, up 8% in the last 24 hours. In today's MSI match, BLG defeated LCK team T1 3-2, advancing to the upper bracket of the MSI playoffs. Previously, BLG won the 2026 League of Legends Global Vanguard Tournament. The rule for this event is: if BLG completes the "Golden Road" this year, the event is considered "yes." This means BLG will achieve the feat of winning all major League of Legends esports events in 2026. In other words, the team's players need to win all regional competitions and participate in all three major international tournaments: the Vanguard Tournament, MSI, and World Championship. This information will be sourced from official League of Legends esports websites. However, reliable reports such as those on Liquidedia can also be consulted. Odaily Seer continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.

On Polymarket, the probability of "LeBron James joining the Philadelphia 76ers" has surged to 18%, compared to just 0.3% two days ago.

Source: 星球日报

According to PPP's prediction market tool, in the multi-option prediction event "Which team will LeBron James play for next season?" on Polymarket, the probability of him joining the Philadelphia 76ers has surged to 18%, compared to only 0.3% two days ago. The probability of him joining the Golden State Warriors has dropped to 18%, a 16% decrease in 24 hours; the probability of him joining the Cleveland Cavaliers is 41%, a 1% increase in 24 hours. After completing the signing of Ben Simmons and the trade for Jaylen Brown, the Philadelphia 76ers have now met LeBron James's requirements for his next team. ESPN's Brian Windhorst publicly interpreted this as James explicitly requiring recruiting teams to make substantial improvements before choosing a new team. If James ultimately joins, the Philadelphia 76ers will be able to field a starting five of Maxi, Edgecombe, Jaylen Brown, James, and Embiid next season. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.

A $1.5 million profit in a week was made by purchasing $330,000 worth of Argentine football in regular time.

Source: 星球日报

PPP prediction market monitoring shows that in Polymarket's "World Cup Round of 32 Argentina vs. Cape Verde" prediction event, an address that earned $1.13 million in a week purchased $330,000 worth of Argentina's regular match time and won. Address: 0x0346afae2603313d2bbee96b628536c8cbe352a5Odaily Seer Channel continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.

The probability of Bitcoin reaching $70,000 this year has risen to 65%.

Source: 区块律动

According to BlockBeats, on July 4th, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $70,000 this year, as predicted on the prediction market platform Polymarket, rose to 65% (compared to 54% on June 26th). Furthermore, the probability of it reaching $80,000 is 32%, and the probability of it reaching $90,000 is 19%.

A smart money player bought $130,000 worth of tickets for Colombia's World Cup Round of 32 victory over Ghana.

Source: 星球日报

According to PPP's market prediction tool, in Polymarket's prediction event of "2026 World Cup Round of 32 Colombia vs. Ghana," the account hot2trot (address: 0xb61b2079b95f6b7476fd3203e0274ffb93308a06), with a total profit of nearly $1.16 million, purchased over $130,000 worth of shares in favor of Colombia advancing to the knockout stage. The average opening price was $65, with 190,431.3 shares purchased, and the current unrealized profit is $6,665. The Colombia vs. Ghana knockout match will take place at 9:30 AM Beijing time on July 4th. Ghanaian defender Opon may miss the match due to an undisclosed injury. Colombia returns to the World Cup knockout stage after an 8-year absence, scoring 4 goals and conceding only 1 in the group stage. Ghana boasts a star-studded squad including Manchester City's Semenho, Atalanta's speedster Suleymana, and the recently naturalized Iñaki Williams, as well as Leicester City's rising star Fatau. However, their over-reliance on individual talent means this match will determine the final 16 team to advance to the knockout stage of this World Cup. Odaily Seer continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.

Spotify demands Kalshi and Polymarket remove their branding, stream manipulation allegations impact prediction market settlements.

Source: 星球日报

Odaily Planet Daily reports that Spotify has requested prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket to remove its branding and clarify that there is no partnership between the two parties. This comes after music streaming data used for platform settlements was found to have been manipulated. Spotify stated that it has removed over 500,000 "fake streams" that pushed certain songs onto the platform's trending charts and were used in a Kalshi prediction market settlement for "June's Most Popular Songs on Spotify in the US," a market with a transaction volume of approximately $3 million. Because the settlement used chart results before data correction, the relevant transactions initially identified the song as the winner. Spotify has contacted both platforms to rectify the situation after completing its investigation. Kalshi is reportedly investigating the incident, while Polymarket has not yet responded. (Bloomberg)

Spotify has asked Kalshi and Polymarket to remove their logos after allegations of manipulated charts affected prediction market settlements.

Source: 区块律动

According to a Bloomberg report on July 3rd, BlockBeats reports that Spotify has requested prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket to remove its logo and explicitly state that there is no partnership between the two companies. This comes after Spotify discovered that some individuals were manipulating song charts through inflated metrics, and these chart results had been used to settle prediction market contracts.

Spotify identified and removed over 500,000 suspicious plays that had propelled Malcolm Todd's "Earrings" to the top of the Spotify US charts. This data was subsequently used to settle a Kalshi prediction market for "the most streamed song on Spotify in the US in June," which generated approximately $3 million in transactions.

A smart money investor bought $290,000 worth of tickets for Argentina's victory over Cape Verde in the World Cup Round of 32.

Source: 星球日报

PPP's market prediction tool monitoring shows that in Polymarket's "2026 World Cup Round of 32 Argentina vs. Cape Verde" prediction event, the account shijiebeifacai (address: 0xbc1b1e935cf5a06f9378fe2b249338649dc29d59), with total profits exceeding $500,000, purchased $290,000 worth of shares betting on Argentina advancing (final result, including extra time and penalties), with an average opening price of 93 RMB and a purchase volume of 310,297.3 shares. In addition, this user also holds $60,000 worth of shares betting on Cape Verde not winning and $60,000 worth betting on Argentina winning, both market values referring to the result within the first 90 minutes of regular time (including stoppage time). The Argentina vs. Cape Verde knockout match will take place on July 4th at 6:00 AM Beijing time. Argentina is a World Cup favorite, with strength, experience, and star players far surpassing their opponent. Cape Verde is a very weak team, but as a dark horse, their tough playing style and tenacious defense could cause Argentina some trouble. Odaily Seer continuously monitors and predicts the market, seeing changes before pricing.

Another case of market manipulation has emerged, with over 500,000 fake play counts removed. Spotify has discovered that Malcolm Todd's song play manipulation is linked to Kalshi betting.

Source: 星球日报

Odaily Planet Daily reports that music streaming platform Spotify has removed over 500,000 fake play counts from artist Malcolm Todd's song "Earrings." The song had previously been pushed to the top of the charts. Spotify's investigation found that the play count manipulation was linked to prediction market betting activities. Traders on the Kalshi platform wagered on which song would become the most-played song on Spotify in the US in June; this market had a trading volume of $3 million. Kalshi declared Todd the winner based on manipulated data and settled the bet before Spotify completed its investigation. After discovering the issue, Spotify requested that Kalshi and Polymarket remove their logos and clarify that they have no partnership. Kalshi stated that it is cooperating with the investigation, while Polymarket has not responded.

A weekly profit of $570,000 was realized by purchasing $340,000 worth of Portugal vs. Croatia matches with more than 2.5 goals.

Source: 星球日报

PPP prediction market monitoring shows that in Polymarket's "World Cup Round of 32 Portugal vs. Croatia" total goals prediction event, the address that earned $570,000 in a week and held $360,000 predicted the total goals for this match would be greater than 2.5. Address: 0x10a6fadcbacd66330862206f6199b197e3ad4d8bOdaily Seer Channel continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.

A weekly profit of $310,000 was used to purchase $240,000 worth of Austrian football matches during regular time without a win.

Source: 星球日报

PPP prediction market monitoring tools show that in Polymarket's "World Cup Round of 32 Spain vs. Austria" prediction event, an address that earned $310,000 in a week purchased $240,000 worth of shares, predicting Austria would not win in regular time. This address, created in 12 days, accumulated a total profit of $390,000. Address: 0xbc1b1e935cf5a06f9378fe2b249338649dc29d59Odaily Seer channel continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.

Polymarket's probability that "GPT-5.6 will open to the public on July 7th" has risen to 64%, a 26% increase in 24 hours.

Source: 星球日报

According to PPP prediction market monitoring tools, the probability of Polymarket's prediction that "GPT-5.6 will be open to the public on July 7th" has risen to 64%, a 26% increase in 24 hours. The rules indicate that GPT-5.6 refers to models explicitly named "GPT-5.6" or those officially recognized as direct successors to GPT-5.5 (such as GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc.), all of which meet the settlement criteria. Task-specific models such as GPT-Codex and Transcribe, cost-optimized versions such as Nano and Mini, and o-series inference models are all included in this market; however, GPT-6 or other next-generation flagship models are not included. Furthermore, eligible models must have been made publicly available, including public beta versions or open waiting lists; closed beta or models limited to private access are not eligible. The final settlement will be based primarily on OpenAI's official announcements and publicly available information on its website, combined with verification through mainstream media reports. On June 27th, OpenAI launched its next-generation GPT-5.6 series models, currently available for limited preview to a select group of partners. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, anticipating changes before pricing.

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