According to Odaily Planet Daily, Polymarket search results indicate that weather forecasts for Hong Kong have been removed, possibly because Wunderground is unable to provide historical weather information for the region. Weather forecasts for Shanghai, however, remain available.

Huoxun Finance News, March 12th - According to Cointelegraph, Utah has passed HB243, the Gambling Amendment, which aims to classify "event betting" as gambling and prohibit platforms offering sports-related predictions or betting items under the guise of prediction markets. Kalshi, Polymarket, and others will be affected. Governor Spencer Cox stated his intention to sign the bill. Previously, Kalshi sued Utah, claiming its event contracts are federally regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act and that the state has no right to prohibit them. This week, Kalshi also sued Iowa. Meanwhile, Michael Selig, Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), reiterated the CFTC's regulatory authority over prediction markets and stated that he will defend this jurisdiction in court.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that Utah's HB243 bill, which defines "event betting" as gambling, has been submitted to the governor's office and aims to prevent prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket from operating in the state. Governor Spencer Cox stated that he plans to sign the bill. Kalshi had previously filed a lawsuit against Utah, asking a federal judge to block the state from enforcing gambling restrictions, arguing that its event contracts are federally regulated derivatives, not gambling, and that the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over such markets under the Commodity Exchange Act. Kalshi also filed a lawsuit against Iowa on the same day. Previously, a federal judge in Ohio had rejected Kalshi's request to block the state's regulator from enforcing gambling laws. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that the agency has regulatory authority over prediction markets and warned that it will defend this jurisdiction in court. Selig also called well-functioning prediction markets "truth machines," arguing that when participants financially support their views, the market can produce more reliable signals than traditional polls.

Odaily's Telegram subscription channel has been upgraded, launching a brand new column, "Odaily Seer." It focuses on the latest trending topics from top KOLs on the X platform; captures probability anomalies in key Polymarket events; and tracks real-time movements of smart money on Polymarket. Providing forward-looking market signals helps users identify trading opportunities that haven't yet been fully priced in. In addition, the channel's push notification mechanism has been optimized, currently only selectively syncing a small amount of core information from the Odaily website to reduce duplicate pushes and minimize disruption. Click the original link to subscribe and stay ahead of the curve in seizing trading opportunities.

According to Odaily Planet Daily, Backpack has confirmed that it will hold its token TGE around March 23. Polymarket's real-time betting data shows that the probability of Backpack's FDV exceeding $300 million on the first day of the TGE is approximately 68%, while the probability of exceeding $500 million is only 33%. Previously, Backpack CEO Armani Ferrante stated in an official Twitch livestream that the token TGE date would be around March 23.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that with the 2026 Academy Awards just around the corner, Polymarket's top award events include: - Best Picture, with trading volume exceeding $29 million, "World War I: The Second Battle" currently leading with a 76% probability; - Best Actor (Movie), Michael B. Jordan currently leading with a 52% probability; - Best Director, Paul Thomas Anderson currently leading with a 93% probability; - Best Actress (Movie), Jessie Buckley currently leading with a 97% probability; - Best Supporting Actress, Amy Madigan currently leading with a 52% probability; - Best Supporting Actor, Sean Penn currently leading with a 73% probability; - Best Cinematography, "World War I: The Second Battle" currently leading with a 73% probability; - Best Original Screenplay, Sinners currently leading with a 96% probability.

According to Odaily Planet Daily, Polymarket published an article on its X platform stating that US intelligence assessments indicate the Iranian leadership remains "fundamentally intact" and faces no risk of collapse in the short term. Polymarket estimates the probability of the Iranian regime falling before June 30th at 24%.

According to Odaily Planet Daily, Polymarket has now launched weather forecast events for Shanghai and Hong Kong, specifically: "Shanghai's highest temperature on March 13" and "Hong Kong's highest temperature on March 13".

Odaily Planet Daily reports that U.S. Representatives Mike Levin and Adam Schiff introduced the "DEATH BETS Act" on Tuesday, aiming to amend the Commodity Exchange Act to explicitly prohibit CFTC-registered entities from listing prediction contracts involving terrorism, assassination, war, or personal death. This bill is a response to recent high-stakes betting on nuclear explosions, military strikes, and leadership changes on platforms like Polymarket. Although CFTC Chairman Michael Selig recently stated he would expand the regulatory framework for prediction markets and claimed their accuracy surpasses political polls, this bill seeks to eliminate the agency's discretionary power and enforce the ban through legislation. Lawmakers stated that such contracts not only pose national security risks but could also incentivize violence and lead to the exploitation of non-public information for profit. (Decrypt)

Huoxun Finance reported on March 11 that, according to CoinDesk, prediction market platform Polymarket has partnered with Palantir and TWGAI to build a monitoring system designed to detect suspicious trading and manipulation in the sports prediction market. The system will utilize Palantir's data infrastructure and TWGAI's analytics tools to monitor trading activity on Polymarket, identify unusual trading patterns, screen participants, and generate compliance reports that can be shared with regulatory agencies or sports leagues. This move comes at a critical time when prediction markets are facing allegations of insider trading.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that U.S. District Court Judge Sarah D. Morrison of the District of Ohio ruled that historical records do not show Congress intending to supersede state sports betting regulations, and therefore dismissed the preliminary injunction application filed by prediction market platform Kalshi. Kalshi had previously requested the court to prevent Ohio regulators from enforcing local betting laws. The platform operates a prediction market that allows users to bet on the outcome of specific events, including sporting events. Last year, the Ohio Casino Control Commission accused Kalshi of engaging in illegal sports betting activities in the state. The judge stated in the ruling that there was no evidence that Congress intended to supersede state regulatory authority over sports betting when drafting the relevant laws. Therefore, Kalshi cannot currently prevent state regulators from continuing enforcement. This case is part of a legal dispute between Kalshi and several state regulators. The core of the dispute is whether the event contracts offered by the platform should be considered financial products regulated by federal derivatives laws or sports betting governed by state betting regulations. This case is considered an important test case for the legality of prediction markets, and its ruling may affect the future regulatory prospects of other prediction market platforms in the United States, including Polymarket.

Huoxun Finance reported on March 10th that, according to The Block, prediction market platform Polymarket is partnering with US data analytics company Palantir to launch a sports betting integrity monitoring platform based on the VergenceAI engine jointly developed by Palantir and TWGAI. This platform will be used to monitor sports prediction market transactions in real time, screen restricted users, generate compliance reports, and identify abnormal behaviors such as manipulation and insider trading to improve market transparency and fairness. The report points out that Polymarket and Kalshi continue to expand in the sports-related prediction market; Kalshi's trading volume exceeded $1 billion on Super Bowl day this year. The two platforms are in talks with potential investors for a new round of financing, with a valuation target close to $20 billion.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that Polymarket has announced a partnership with Palantir Technologies, backed by Peter Thiel, to develop an AI-powered monitoring tool for the sports prediction market. The platform will utilize the Vergence AI engine and aims to "establish a new standard for integrity control in the sports market," preventing, identifying, and reporting abnormal or suspicious trading activities in real time, including manipulation and insider trading. It will also support compliant reporting and prohibit user screening to ensure market fairness and trust. (The Block)

Odaily Planet Daily reports that US President Trump stated at a Republican convention in Florida that he will refuse to sign any other law until Congress approves the "SAVE America Act" (a bill concerning voter identity verification, proof of citizenship, and restrictions on mail-in ballots). This statement could hinder the long-awaited Digital Asset Market Clarity Act for the crypto industry. This crypto bill is currently undergoing difficult negotiations with the Senate Banking Committee and has previously passed the Senate Agriculture Committee. Although Trump has been calling for improved crypto regulation since early last year and making it a White House priority, he currently insists on the voter identity bill as his top priority, stating that it is crucial to ensuring Republican victory in the midterm elections and beyond. Currently, the prediction market Polymarket indicates an 85% probability that Republicans will lose their majority in the House of Representatives. (CoinDesk)

According to Dune data, the forecast market remained active, with the number of transactions reaching a new record high of 47.26 million last week. Polymarket led the way with 26.26 million transactions, followed by Kalshi with 20.04 million transactions.

According to data from Polymarket, as reported by Odaily, the probability of Kraken's IPO this year surged to 93% tonight before falling back to 69%, with trading volume exceeding $260,000. Previously, it was reported that Nasdaq partnered with Kraken's parent company, Payward, to promote tokenized stock trading.

According to a Bloomberg report on March 9, Polymarket, an on-chain prediction market platform, plans to add binary options to the S&P 500 index, allowing users to bet on whether the index price will "go up" or "go down".

Despite the surge in oil prices triggered by the Middle East situation, Bitcoin prices have remained within the $67,000 range, without panic selling, suggesting the market may have bottomed out. Analyst Brian Brookshire noted, "Bitcoin's failure to fall when the market is generally under pressure is one of the strongest bottoming signals." On Monday in early Asian trading, WTI crude oil rose to $119 per barrel, a new high since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Iraq warned that approximately 3 million barrels of crude oil production per day globally could be affected due to Iranian threats against oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. The Kobeissi Letter analysis points out that this situation is "the largest oil supply shock in history," with a daily loss of nearly 20 million barrels of crude oil supply. The surge in oil prices has exacerbated global inflation concerns, leading the market to expect that the Federal Reserve will be unlikely to cut interest rates in 2026. Polymarket data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged on March 18 is about 99%, with only about a 27% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut. Keeping interest rates unchanged typically tightens financial conditions, boosts the dollar, and puts short-term pressure on Bitcoin. From a technical perspective, although BTC/USD encountered resistance at $74,000, it still recorded its first positive weekly candle in seven weeks and formed an inverted hammer pattern, potentially hinting at a bullish reversal. CoinBureau founder and CEO Nic stated that this price action provides a potential bullish signal for the market. (Cointelegraph)

According to a report by Parity, a prediction market data platform, published on the X platform, data from May 2024 shows that Kalshi and Polymarket, two major prediction markets, added over 273,908 new users last month. Furthermore, Polymarket boasts impressive retention rates: a monthly retention rate of 50.2% and a 3-month retention rate of 30%. Note: Kalshi's new user data is based on publicly available user data; retention rate data is calculated solely from Polymarket data.

According to data from Polymarket, as reported by Odaily, the probability of the UAE launching an attack on Iran before March 31st surged to 84% last night before falling back to 33%, with trading volume exceeding $1 million. Earlier reports indicated that the UAE was attacked by Iran last night, potentially impacting the US Al Dhabi Air Base.