Analysis: One indicator suggests that Bitcoin bottomed out in late November last year, and there is still significant upside potential.
Huoxun Finance reported on January 6th that, according to CoinDesk, Bitcoin plummeted to nearly $80,000 in late November 2025. At this point, the ratio of the supply of profitable short-term holders to the supply of losing short-term holders fell to historical levels consistent with major or local bear market bottoms. Glassnode data shows that this ratio dropped to 0.013 on November 24th. Previously, every time this level was reached, it marked a local bottom or absolute low point of a bear market, including in 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022. Glassnode defines short-term holders as investors who have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days. During the November trough, the 7-day moving average of the supply of profitable short-term holders fell to approximately 30,000 Bitcoins, while the supply of losing short-term holders surged to 2.45 million Bitcoins, the highest since the FTX crash in November 2022, when Bitcoin bottomed out near $15,000. Since the beginning of 2026, Bitcoin has rebounded to approximately $94,000, an increase of over 7%. During this period, the supply from short-term holders who incurred losses decreased to 1.9 million coins, while those who profited rebounded to 850,000 coins, resulting in a ratio of approximately 0.45. Historically, when this ratio approaches 1, it tends to break through and continue to widen, with Bitcoin prices also tending to rise continuously. Currently, the ratio is below 0.5%, indicating that the indicator still has significant room to expand before reaching equilibrium. Market tops typically occur when this ratio rises to close to 100.