Cryptocurrency analyst Michael van de Poppe has established a strong historical correlation for the resumption of Ethereum’s bullish trend over Bitcoin by 2026. The analysis published on January 18 shows ETH/BTC and Chinese Yuan (CNY) reaching a bottoming out point of conclusion in April 2025, replicating the same pattern seen during the peaks and troughs of 2016 and 2019 prior to their considerable pump. In addition to the potential for renewed interest among traders, this has sparked renewed interest among traders regarding the overall macroeconomic influences on cryptocurrency.
The April 2025 Bottom – History Repeating
The Chinese Yuan is highly correlated with the relative strength of Ethereum against Bitcoin through three market cycles. This correlation is visible through the lowest points of both assets that occurred in April 2016 and 2019, which then led to extended periods of growth in cryptocurrency markets, and again in 2025.
As of April 2025, the ETH-BTC was at or around the 0.034 & 0.035 areas, with support from these levels, which are some of the lowest recorded for some time. Currently the ETH-BTC is at approximately 0.0348, but still way off from previous cycle tops over 0.08.
Simultaneously, the yuan became weaker when China permitted the value of the Yuan to decline below $7.20; this level is often seen as an important mental support area for traders. The decline of the yuan occurred during newly heightened trade tensions resulting from high tariffs imposed against China by the United States.
Knowledge of the Macro Connection
The relationship between the value of the Chinese Yuan to Chinese investors and the Cryptocurrency markets is much more than a mere coincidence based on statistical observation. As the Chinese Yuan depreciates, the fears of capital flight by various Chinese investors grow. As a result, Chinese investors generally view cryptocurrency as being an alternative form of storing value.
The synchronized lows in April 2025 resulted in a rebound for both assets; however, their recovery trajectories began to diverge shortly after that. The Chinese Yuan had appreciated throughout much of 2025 and broke below 7.0 versus the USD in December. The Ethereum price fluctuated throughout 2025, with ETH/BTC increasing by more than 20% from the April bottom before experiencing a downward correction from the August high.
The description shows that Ethereum’s on-chain metric indicates positive indicators for price increase. The 2026 daily transaction volume was approaching two million and new wallets had been opened on January 14, 2026 with a record amount of new wallet creation at 393,600. Following the Fusaka network upgrade, Ethereum’s transaction fee had reached its lowest level in many years (below $0.01).
Market Implications for Traders
A key takeaway for investors participating in financial markets, is that the economic linkages between Chinese capital flow, international liquidity, and the performance trends of risk-based accounts will help to provide strategic insight into how investors should approach the collection of their money over a longer-term basis. The outlook appears bullish on those participants that have positioned themselves to benefit from an ongoing trend.
Some analysts suggest entering at the ETH-BTC ratio of 0.0348, with ETH trading at 3,300 and BTC around $102,000 in mid-January 2026. Ethereum is testing its 200-day exponential moving average around $3,388, a major resistance that might lead to $3,800 to $4,000. The recent divergence saw the yuan rise as ETH corrected in the middle of turbulence, although analysts believe this is temporary due to historical structure.
Conclusion
ETH-BTC may benefit from synchronous April bottoms in 2016, 2019, and 2025 before big uptrends. The Yuan has risen dramatically from April’s lows, completing the pattern. Given record network activity and rising institutional inflows, Ethereum must decide if it can follow through. The next few months will show if this pattern holds the projected vigor.
