CryptoQuant’s latest chart has a blunt message for traders: short-term Bitcoin (BTC) buyers who had been selling at a loss have suddenly flipped back into profit, and they did it all in the last 24 hours. The analytics firm highlighted a dramatic green spike in its Short-Term Holder (STH) profit-and-loss-to-exchanges metric, noting that after weeks of purple losses, the most recent print was the largest profit spike across the whole range. The implication, CryptoQuant warned, is that many of the late buyers have finally found liquidity and are selling into it, a behavior that often precedes local trend exhaustion rather than the start of a fresh, clean leg higher.
That signal landed as Bitcoin traded around the mid-$95,000s on Friday, hovering near levels last seen in November as the market tries to decide whether the recent strength will last. Major data feeds show BTC around $95,600, a modest pullback from a short-lived push above $97,000 earlier in the week. Volume has been patchy during the move, adding to the sense that this rally is being driven by episodic buying rather than broad-based conviction.
Could This Mark a Local Top?
There are a few moving parts behind the price action. Spot ETF flows have been cited by market commentators as a tailwind for the rally, with a handful of big inflow days helping to lift prices and sentiment. At the same time, regulatory headlines in Washington have injected volatility: a delay to a Senate committee hearing on a major digital-assets bill and reported pushback from industry players briefly dented risk appetite this week. That mix, inflows on one side, policy uncertainty on the other, helps explain why short-term holders would be tempted to lock in gains at the first clear opportunity.
Technically, analysts are split. Some note that momentum indicators still look constructive and that buyers have been stepping in on dips, pointing to potential upside targets in the low six-figure range if BTC can reclaim the 200-day moving average. Others caution that a concentrated cluster of profit-taking by recent entrants can sap upward momentum quickly, especially when volume isn’t broad-based. CryptoQuant’s commentary that large STH profit spikes occur near local tops serves as a reminder that on-chain wins for retail can sometimes mark the market’s peak in the short run.
For traders and observers, the chart is both a moment of clarity and of caution. The green spike is welcome; it means fewer recent buyers are underwater, but it also raises the spectral possibility that many of those same buyers will sell into any meaningful rally. Watching STH realized P/L alongside ETF flows and regulatory developments will likely be the most useful way to read what comes next: continued institutional accumulation could offset retail profit-taking, but if policy noise or thin volumes return, this profit flip may show up as a local top rather than a fresh breakout.
