The cryptocurrency market is rarely on a predictable script, and Solana’s latest price action is a perfect example of the same. Despite the expected listing of spot Solana exchange-traded funds in the late months of October, SOL has declined approximately 16% in the past week, to a five-month low of about $138. This dramatic increase has made investors wonder how the institutional validation of ETF approvals could coincide with such bearish price movement.
The Perfect Storm – Multiple Headwinds Collide
Solana’s recent fall has several contributing factors that have collectively facilitated positive market strategies. The token has reached lows since mid-June with trading action reading extreme fear in the wider cryptocurrency market.
The crypto market experienced a lot of trouble in mid-November with Bitcoin falling as low as below $90,000. This macro weakness was felt in altcoins, and Solana was the most important one. Market data shows that SOL fell about 26% in a 30-day period, well below the performance of the global crypto market as well as other smart contract platforms.
Adding to the selling pressure, scheduled token unlocks from bankrupt Alameda Research and FTX estate continue to increase supply into exchanges. On November 11, some 193,000 SOL tokens totaling approximately $30 million were unlocked in court-ordered monthly distributions. Since November of 2023, the estate has been releasing a total of eight to nine million tokens of SOL on a systematic basis, with approximately five million still occupied until 2028.
The ETF Paradox – Strong Demand Meets Weak Price Action
The most confusing aspect of the Solana performance is the separation between institutional demand and the spot price. The U.S. spot Solana ETFs launching in late October had been labeled a significant success, with Bitwise’s Solana ETF garnering around $199 million in its first week. The total inflows across products is $421 million, which is the second-highest week-on-week inflow for digital asset ETFs on record.
VanEck expanded its competition by launching its own Solana ETF on November 17, waiving sponsor fees on the first $1 billion in assets until February 2026. This aggressive approach reflects the belief that major asset managers have in the long-term potential of Solana.
SOL reached an all-time peak of almost $205 just a day prior to the launch of an ETF, then fell 20% to $165 over the course of the week before continuing its descent to recent levels of nearly $137-140. This counterintuitive movement emphasizes the lack of ETF inflows to compensate for macro market weakness and leveraged liquidations and FTX estate selling.
Network Fundamentals Remain Strong Despite Price Weakness
Price action has been a challenging issue to SOL holders, but on-chain data is putting in a strong case. The network is still processing tens of millions of transactions every day with volumes of decentralized exchange recently surpassing $5 billion, more than Ethereum and BNB Chain.
The stablecoin ecosystem on Solana has witnessed incredible growth with huge USDC mints of hundreds of millions of dollars. This means that Solana is a popular settlement option for high-volume crypto transactions, even when the prices are low. Developer activity is still strong, and in 2025, Solana will be the second most popular platform for new developers behind Ethereum.
Conclusion
Solana’s situation reflects the intricacies in the dynamics between cryptocurrencies and their price movements, where sometimes the most important fundamentals will be defeated by any form of adverse fundamentals. The fact that historic ETF launches and multi-month prices are occurring simultaneously is a reminder that institutional adoption does not mean short-term returns.
Solana’s network fundamentals are still strong, and institutional validation is a remarkable achievement. However, the risk of repeated FTX tokens and market instability can be attributed to the use of the token closest to the median and Contributor.
