Bitcoin Steadies Above $113K as Gold Hits Record Amid Shutdown Uncertainty

Bitcoin has stabilized above $113,000 after recovering from last week's sharp decline, with the asset bouncing from lows near $108,650 to reclaim $114,000 in a V-shaped recovery pattern that suggests buyers are defending the $110,000-$111,000 support zone.

At publication time, the cryptocurrency traded at $113,538, up 1.18% over 24 hours, as spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $522 million in net inflows on September 29. The institutional buying marked the strongest signal of renewed participation after several sessions of muted activity.

Ethereum gained 1.15% to $4,173, stabilizing above $4,100 following five consecutive days of ETF outflows that reversed with a $547 million net inflow. Solana slipped 0.34% to $208.33, while BNB pushed above $1,000, supported by Kazakhstan's announcement that it selected BNB as the inaugural holding for its national crypto reserve.

Total cryptocurrency market capitalization stood at $3.9 trillion, up 0.78% over 24 hours, with price action concentrated in major assets as altcoins followed Bitcoin's lead but with more contained moves.

The recovery comes against a volatile macro backdrop mixing supportive liquidity expectations with political and policy uncertainty. Gold surged to an all-time high of $3,832, underscoring demand for hard assets as investors navigate unclear conditions.

Shutdown Risk Clouds Data Picture

U.S. government funding expires Wednesday at 11:59 PM, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics warning that Friday's nonfarm payrolls report will not be released if Congress fails to reach a funding agreement. The potential data blackout complicates the Federal Reserve's decision-making ahead of its next policy meeting.

Markets are pricing an October rate cut at nearly 90% probability despite Federal Reserve officials emphasizing restraint. New York Fed President Williams stressed that inflation remains too high and future cuts will depend on incoming data, but liquidity expectations continue supporting risk assets.

The shutdown threat adds to existing uncertainty around economic indicators, with ADP employment data and ISM Manufacturing PMI due Wednesday providing alternative reads on labor market conditions. Goldman Sachs analysts noted that October historically shows 33% above-average volatility, describing it as a critical period for year-end performance management.

Markets are pricing in 8% third-quarter earnings growth, expectations seen only twice in the past 30 years during 1999 and 2021, both periods preceding significant selloffs. The optimistic positioning increases vulnerability to disappointment if results or guidance underwhelm.

Regulatory Activity Intensifies

The Securities and Exchange Commission and FINRA contacted over 200 companies that announced digital asset transactions , raising concerns about unusually high trading volumes and price gains before public announcements. The SEC warned companies about potential violations of Regulation Fair Disclosure, which prohibits selective disclosure of material information to certain investors.

The regulatory scrutiny comes as the SEC fast-tracks a Trump administration proposal allowing companies the option to report on a semi-annual rather than quarterly basis, potentially reducing disclosure frequency for public markets.

A Senate Banking Committee hearing on crypto taxation is scheduled this week , with Coinbase's vice president of tax set to testify. The hearing occurs 180 days after an executive order directed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to develop budget-neutral strategies for acquiring Bitcoin for a strategic reserve.

In response to a Freedom of Information Act request, the U.S. Treasury disclosed it has not yet received reports on agency authorities to transfer assets to the proposed Digital Asset Stockpile, indicating limited progress on the strategic reserve initiative.

Technical Picture and Positioning

Bitcoin's chart structure shows higher lows stacking consistently, with resistance between $115,000 and $116,300 representing the next hurdle. Consolidation in that range appears likely before any attempt higher, with the bullish bias intact as long as the asset holds above $109,000.

The recovery from last week's flush suggests buyers stepped in aggressively at lower levels, though the sustainability of the bounce depends on broader risk appetite and macro developments. Institutional flows through ETFs provide a constructive signal, though weekly patterns remain uneven.

Altcoin performance has lagged Bitcoin's recovery, reflecting continued liquidity concentration in major assets. This pattern typically emerges during uncertain market conditions when investors favor established cryptocurrencies over smaller-cap alternatives.

Geopolitical Backdrop

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's outreach to Qatar marked a temporary de-escalation in Middle East tensions, though risks persist. The Trump administration announced a "Board of Peace" initiative with former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, adding an unusual diplomatic element to geopolitical dynamics.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to deliver a major speech this week, adding another variable to an already complex geopolitical environment. The Sumud Flotilla seeking to break Israel's blockade of Gaza is expected to reach the region this week, with Spain deploying warships to provide protection.

The combination of factors keeps macro conditions volatile, with investors rotating between hard assets like gold and risk proxies like Bitcoin depending on the prevailing concern. The simultaneous strength in both suggests broad-based uncertainty rather than clear directional conviction.

Week Ahead

Wednesday's ADP employment report and ISM Manufacturing PMI will provide early indicators of economic momentum ahead of Friday's jobs data, assuming the government remains funded. The Bureau of Labor Statistics expects payrolls to add 54,000 net jobs, though shutdown uncertainty clouds the outlook for the release.

ISM Services PMI, due Friday, will offer insights into the larger services sector after manufacturing data. The combination of employment and activity indicators typically influences Fed policy expectations and risk asset positioning heading into month-end.

TOKEN2049 conference in Singapore continues this week, with announcements expected from Volmex and potentially Monad among other projects. Industry events often generate headline activity but rarely drive sustained price moves absent fundamental catalysts.

The cryptocurrency market faces a critical juncture as institutional participation returns but macro uncertainties persist. Whether Bitcoin can break through resistance in the $115,000-$116,300 range likely depends on clarity around Fed policy, government funding, and economic data quality over the coming weeks.

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