Dogecoin Price Eyes Breakout as ETF Launch Speculation Heats Up

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Dogecoin is the talk of the town, with traders speculating on the upcoming launch of the Rex-Osprey DOGE ETF ($DOJE). If approved, this would be the first Dogecoin ETF in the U.S., offering investors a way to gain exposure to DOGE without actually holding possession of the token. The hype surrounding $DOJE is lifting both sentiment and trading activity, although the move has been choppy as whales continue to capitalize on crowd-driven volatility.

Dogecoin On-Chain Analysis

Whale behavior has played a prime role in recent DOGE price swings. On August 15, the first wave of ETF rumors triggered a rush of retail buying, but whales sold heavily into the news, leading to a local top. A report on Santiment shows that wallets holding 1M–10M DOGE now control 10.91B tokens, representing 7.23% of the supply. Now, this is their highest level since December 2021.

At the same time, whale transaction activity spiked again this week. With 118 transfers above $1M in a single day, the highest in nearly a month. Notably, this surge came right as DOGE hit its latest short-term price top.

Successively, the social sentiment has mirrored this cycle of hype and cooling. The August 15 ETF buzz created a sharp spike in Dogecoin mentions. Then only to be followed by a retracement as the “buy the rumor, sell the news” dynamic came into play. Now, with September’s renewed ETF approval speculation, mentions have shot up again, though FOMO-driven spikes are starting to lose steam.

DOGE Price Analysis

At press time, DOGE is being sold across exchanges at a 4.11% intraday premium for $0.2414. Market cap stands at $36.41 billion, with $3.75 billion in 24-hour volume. Price action shows DOGE reclaiming its 30-day SMA at $0.22365 and breaking above the $0.237 Fibonacci pivot. The MACD histogram has also turned positive for the first time since late August, hinting at bullish momentum.

Talking about targets, the resistance for Dogecoin price sits at $0.243 , followed by $0.260. Support rests at $0.237 and $0.225. On the RSI front, the 14-day reading at 71.45 suggests overheating.

The ETF speculation is clearly driving this surge. Analysts estimate a 63% chance of approval for $DOJE following its September 7 SEC review. If approval is seen, institutional exposure could pour into DOGE through traditional channels, boosting liquidity and price momentum.

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