According to BlockBeats, on July 24th, the long-awaited CLARITY Act for the US crypto industry suffered another setback. With Senate Majority Leader John Thune stating that the bill is not expected to be voted on before the August recess, market expectations for its passage this year have significantly decreased.
According to Polymarket data, as of July 24, the probability of the CLARITY Act passing this year is about 37%, far lower than the level that once exceeded 80% this spring.
The Clarity Act aims to establish a clear regulatory framework for digital assets and promote their integration into the mainstream financial system. While there is some bipartisan consensus on the core content of the bill, the conflict of interest surrounding US President Trump and his family's crypto business has become a major obstacle in legislative negotiations.
Democrats are demanding that the bill include stricter ethical provisions to restrict the president and federal officials from profiting from crypto assets. Trump had previously explicitly opposed such restrictions, but Republicans have recently changed their stance and submitted a new draft bill that includes provisions prohibiting elected officials from profiting from crypto asset trading.
However, Democrats believe that the new ethics clause has obvious loopholes and cannot effectively address the issue of the Trump family's huge profits from crypto projects such as Memecoin.
Ron Hammond, head of policy at crypto firm Wintermute, said that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s recent call for Democrats to focus their political offensive on Trump and related corruption ahead of the midterm elections could reduce their willingness to support the CLARITY Act.
Hammond believes that opponents in the banking and crypto industries have slowed the bill's progress by delaying the process, but he still stated, "The votes are already in place; it's just that electoral politics have a greater influence."
Analysts point out that even if the CLARITY Act fails to pass before the current recess, there is still a window of opportunity before Congress closes at the end of the year. However, due to unresolved issues such as government funding and defense, the bill, championed by the crypto industry, may face pressure from the agenda. With the November midterm elections approaching, future changes in the power structure of the US Congress could further impact the progress of crypto regulatory legislation.