Report: US users may contribute up to $34 billion in offshore prediction market trading volume

According to a report by consulting firm Crane Zeng, while some offshore prediction market platforms should theoretically block US users, US users may still contribute a significant amount of trading activity. The report estimates that US users trade between $11 billion and $34 billion in offshore prediction markets, representing 12.5% to 31.5% of the total US prediction market trading volume. Polymarket alone may contribute between $11 billion and $27 billion in related trading volume, an estimate the report considers "conservative." The report also predicts that if the relative share of regulated and offshore markets remains unchanged, US users' annual trading volume in offshore prediction markets could reach $133 billion by 2030. Prediction markets have grown rapidly in the past two years, with Kalshi and Polymarket being prime examples. Although the US CFTC has recently adopted a more lenient stance towards domestic prediction markets, unlicensed offshore platforms are still prohibited from providing services to US users. Polymarket was previously banned from operating in the US in 2022 for not registering to serve US clients.