HYPE has rebounded 108% from its low this year, but on-chain data shows a divergence from price action.

According to Huoxun Finance, Hyperliquid's native token HYPE retested $45 on Tuesday, reaching its highest level since October 31, 2025. This rebound represents a cumulative increase of 108% from its yearly low of $21 on January 21. However, market signals are divergent: spot buying is weak, with cumulative spot trading volume (CVD) falling to -$41.48 million, diverging from the price increase and indicating that the rise is mainly supported by passive demand rather than aggressive spot buying; futures sentiment is cautious, with futures CVD remaining flat at around -$748 million for nearly a month. Although open interest (OI) has risen to $1.38 billion, the weak futures CVD suggests that traders lack confidence in chasing the price higher. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicts that if Hyperliquid continues to gain market share on centralized exchanges, HYPE could rise 200% to $150 by August. Currently, HYPE is trading at $43.5, 27% lower than its all-time high of $59. Analysts warn that if the bullish momentum fades, the market could be more prone to sharp, liquidation-driven volatility.