On Polymarket, the probability that "Israel will launch an attack on Yemen before April 30" has fallen to 14%, a 32% drop in the last 24 hours.

According to Odaily Seer, the probability of Israel launching an attack on Yemen before April 30th has fallen to 14% on Polymarket, a 32% drop in 24 hours. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will host a meeting between the Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors in Washington on the 14th. This meeting, held amidst ongoing conflict, will focus on the possibility of a ceasefire, Hezbollah's disarmament, and a long-term peace agreement. It is understood that after President Trump pressured for de-escalation, Netanyahu agreed to move forward with negotiations, and the US has requested Israel to suspend some military operations. With diplomatic efforts underway, market expectations for Israel opening a new front in Yemen have cooled significantly. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before they are priced in.