Polymarket's probability that "the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal by May 31st" is only 37%, and the market has fallen 9% in the last 24 hours.

According to Odaily Seer's monitoring, Polymarket's probability of "the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal by May 31st" is only 37%, a 9% drop in 24 hours. The contract rules for this event state that if the International Monetary Fund's Portwatch reports a 7-day moving average of vessel arrivals ("vessel arrivals") in the Strait of Hormuz equal to or greater than 60 on any date between the market's creation and May 31, 2026, the market will be rated "Yes"; otherwise, it will be rated "No". Daily vessel arrivals include container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and tankers; vessels not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Xinhua News Agency reported that the US military announced it will begin implementing a blockade in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea east of the Strait of Hormuz, and any unauthorized vessels entering or leaving the blockade area may be intercepted, diverted, and detained. Furthermore, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu expressed support for Trump's decision to impose a maritime blockade on Iran, adding that his government is fully coordinating with Washington on this matter. According to a video statement released by the Prime Minister's Office, Netanyahu stated at a cabinet meeting: "Iran has violated the rules, and President Trump has decided to impose a maritime blockade." "We certainly support this firm stance, and we are maintaining continuous coordination with the United States." Odaily Seer, the Prophet Channel, continuously monitors prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing.