According to BlockBeats, on July 3, QCP Capital reported that Bitcoin briefly fell below the key support level of $58,000 on Wednesday, hitting a low of approximately $57,700. It then rebounded after weaker-than-expected US June non-farm payroll data, regaining its position above $60,000. Ethereum performed even stronger, returning above $1,700, rebounding nearly 10% from its midweek low.

The options market quickly digested the previous panic, with short-term implied volatility falling back and the term structure returning to a contango. July-expiring call options became the dominant trading activity, and volatility sellers regained the upper hand.

However, this non-farm payroll data is insufficient to support a dovish shift by the Federal Reserve. Accelerated wage growth, a declining unemployment rate, and continued strong consumption all suggest that the Fed still has room to maintain a hawkish stance. Although the BTC spot ETF ended six consecutive trading days of net outflows and recorded a net inflow of $224 million, a full-blown recovery in risk appetite for US Treasuries and stocks has not yet been confirmed. Therefore, the current situation appears to be more of a temporary rebound in the crypto market, and the market still needs to observe whether this rally can be validated by a wider range of assets.

According to BlockBeats, on July 3rd, data from the prediction market platform Predict.fun showed that in the 2026 USA-Mexico World Cup Round of 32 knockout stage match between Argentina and Cape Verde, the market gave Argentina approximately a 94% probability of advancing, while Cape Verde had approximately a 7% probability. Traders generally favored the defending champions, Argentina, to advance to the next round.

It's worth noting that Argentina, as one of the favorites to win this World Cup, is highly regarded by the market for its stable overall strength and rich experience in major tournaments. Cape Verde, on the other hand, is making its World Cup knockout stage debut. Although there is a significant gap in strength between the two sides on paper, reaching the round of 32 already demonstrates the team's considerable competitiveness. The market currently almost unanimously supports Argentina's advancement, but the single-elimination format of the knockout stage still retains some suspense in the match.

According to BlockBeats, on July 3rd, analyst Darkfost stated that Long-Term Holders (LTH) currently hold approximately 15.6 million BTC, representing about 78% of the circulating supply, and this percentage continues to rise. In December 2023, this figure was approximately 16.8 million BTC. Since then, LTH holders have conducted large-scale distributions at several peaks in this cycle, significantly impacting market trends.

The current increase in LTH holdings corresponds to the conversion of BTC purchased approximately six months ago when the price was around $90,000 into "long-term holdings," and does not necessarily indicate that long-term holders are continuously increasing their holdings. Since this indicator is based on the UTXO model, BTC must be held for at least six months to be included in LTH. Therefore, the current figure only indicates that the amount of BTC in LTH status is higher than the amount sold by long-term holders.

Furthermore, if this indicator continues to rise significantly in August, it will reflect that the tokens bought during the period when BTC fell below $60,000 in February this year are beginning to enter the long-term holding phase. At that time, it will be possible to further observe whether the market decline at that time truly stimulated new demand. At the same time, this cycle is consistent with history. During the period from the end of the bear market to the first peak of the bull market, the proportion of LTH holdings rose rapidly, and then entered the distribution phase where long-term holders distributed tokens to the market.