Crypto Market Correction Deepens: On-Chain Data Points to Capitulation—What’s Next?

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The crypto market is witnessing a steep decline today, with total market capitalisation slipping below $3.8 trillion, down nearly 5% in 24 hours. Bitcoin price dropped below the $110,000 barrier, while Ethereum price dropped below $4000. This correction follows a wave of global macro uncertainty—including renewed U.S.–China trade tensions, stronger dollar momentum, and rising bond yields—which have collectively sparked a risk-off rotation.

Popular cryptos, which had been rallying steadily through early October, are now seeing intense profit-taking and forced liquidations, suggesting the market may be entering a short-term consolidation or correction phase.

On-Chain Metrics Signal Capital Outflows

While derivatives show the immediate sell-side pressure, on-chain data paints a broader picture of weakening confidence among large holders.

• Exchange inflows have surged by 18% week-on-week, with over $2.3 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum moving from cold wallets to exchanges—typically a bearish sign indicating intent to sell.

• Stablecoin inflows have spiked, suggesting traders are moving profits into cash equivalents and waiting for reentry points.

• The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) across major Layer-1 tokens has flipped negative, reflecting reduced accumulation.

• Whale activity remains elevated—several large wallets have transferred multi-million-dollar holdings of LINK, SOL, and AVAX to exchanges, signaling portfolio rebalancing or profit realization.

Network health indicators such as active addresses and transaction volumes have also plateaued, reinforcing the notion of short-term exhaustion following weeks of bullish momentum.

Derivatives Market Structure Turns Defensive

Market structure data from Deribit and OKX shows a clear tilt toward protective positioning. The put-to-call ratio for Bitcoin options has climbed to 0.78, the highest in over two months, as traders hedge against further downside. At the same time, implied volatility (IV) has risen across short-dated contracts, indicating increased demand for protection and speculative plays on continued weakness.

Meanwhile, basis premiums—the difference between spot and futures prices—have flattened near zero, suggesting the bullish carry trade that dominated earlier in October has completely unwound. This transition from speculative longs to defensive hedging is a strong indication of market repositioning, often seen before volatility compression or trend reversal.

Liquidity depth has thinned across major exchanges, amplifying each sell-off wave. With liquidity providers widening spreads and some market makers scaling back risk exposure, even moderate sell orders are triggering slippage and mini-flash dips.According to Kaiko, order book imbalance has shifted 60:40 in favor of sellers—the weakest ratio since mid-August—confirming the dominance of downward momentum.

What to Watch Next: Signs of Bottom Formation

Despite the sharp correction, analysts note that this may be a healthy reset in an otherwise bullish macro uptrend. If liquidation intensity cools and exchange inflows slow down, it could signal the start of market stabilization.

Key indicators to monitor:

• Decline in negative funding rates and reduction in open interest volatility.

• Drop in exchange inflows coupled with rising stablecoin outflows, suggesting re-accumulation.

• Recovery in on-chain CMF and active address growth, showing renewed participation.

Until then, traders should remain cautious as volatility and forced selling could extend the correction another 5–8%, particularly if Bitcoin retests the $105K–$108K range.