BRN Sees "Structural Transformation" in H2 2025 as Institutional Adoption Accelerates

BRN , the digital asset research arm of Blockhead, has released its mid-year outlook declaring that the crypto market has undergone a "structural transformation" in the first half of 2025, driven by unprecedented institutional adoption and regulatory clarity that has fundamentally altered the investment landscape.

BRN's H2 2025 Digital Asset Outlook highlights that corporate Bitcoin treasury holdings have exploded 50% year-to-date, with over 160 companies, including 60 listed companies, now holding more than 1 million BTC collectively, representing approximately 5% of Bitcoin's total supply.

The bullish assessment comes as Bitcoin trades around $117,500, representing a remarkable surge from approximately $94,600 at the start of January—a gain of over 24% year-to-date. More significantly, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization has surged past $4 trillion for the first time, driven by the recent altcoin rally and institutional adoption momentum.

"The market is no longer driven primarily by short-term speculation but by layered demand from corporate treasuries, institutional investors, and an increasingly sophisticated retail base," analyst Valentin Fournier said in the report. "Investors are no longer evaluating speculative narratives but are positioning for a future where digital assets are embedded in the fabric of global finance," Fournier added.

DeFi Renaissance Drives TVL to Record Highs

Perhaps most striking is the resurgence of decentralized finance, with Total Value Locked (TVL) across DeFi protocols reaching an all-time high of $223 billion as of July 24—a 23% increase since January.

Fournier emphasized this growth differs markedly from previous cycles: "Unlike the yield-farming surges of previous cycles, this recovery reflects fundamental improvements in protocol design, governance, and risk management," adding, "User growth has increased 240% year-over-year, indicating genuine adoption rather than purely speculative activity."

The report highlights that institutional capital has begun flowing meaningfully into liquid staking protocols, with Lido alone managing over $32 billion in staked assets.

Altcoin Season Officially Underway

Fournier confirmed that the long-anticipated "altcoin season" has begun, with Bitcoin dominance declining from 66% to 61.5% in what has been the sharpest monthly drop since late 2024. The Altcoin Season Index surged to 51, with Ethereum outperforming Bitcoin by over 50% in July alone.

"This phase marks the emergence of Phase 2 (Ethereum Transition) in our rotation model, with Phase 3 (Broad Altcoin Season) likely triggered once BTC dominance breaks decisively below 60%," Fournier noted.

Corporate Treasury Revolution

The Strategy-pioneered Bitcoin treasury approach has evolved far beyond its origins, with non-MSTR entities acquiring over 56,000 BTC in Q2 alone. Companies like GameStop, Metaplanet, and Twenty One are now accessing capital markets through convertible debt and stock premiums to fund their Bitcoin accumulation strategies.

"Companies are now implementing dynamic allocation models that adjust Bitcoin exposure based on balance sheet metrics, market conditions, and business cycle considerations," the report states. "This evolution from simple accumulation to strategic asset management represents a maturation of corporate Bitcoin adoption."

Following Bitcoin's lead, Ethereum is rapidly gaining acceptance as a corporate treasury asset, with significant institutional momentum building throughout 2025, with 65 companies now holding a combined 2.73 million ETH worth $10.53 billion, representing 2.26% of Ethereum's total supply.

"The pace of corporate Ethereum buying rivals inflows into spot ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which are themselves seeing record demand. This dual momentum from both corporate treasuries and institutional ETF flows is creating unprecedented demand dynamics for Ethereum," Fournier said.

ETF Success Exceeds Expectations

BlackRock's IBIT reached $80 billion in assets under management in record time, while Ethereum ETFs have brought in $9.12 billion in 2025 inflows, including a record-breaking $727 million single-day inflow on July 16.

Fournier noted that "ETF flows remained resilient even during bouts of volatility, reinforcing the notion that digital assets are increasingly being managed with institutional discipline."

Risks Remain Despite Progress

Despite the bullish outlook, BRN cautioned about several risk factors, including corporate treasury concentration that could amplify volatility, potential retail speculation in altcoins, and uneven regulatory implementation across jurisdictions.

"Corporate treasury concentration introduces systemic exposure risks, as the significant Bitcoin holdings of public companies create correlation between equity markets and digital asset prices," the firm warned.

Validation of Early 2025 Predictions

The current market performance validates predictions made by Fournier in his 2025 outlook, published in December 2024, which said that while "only Bitcoin has reached the stage of massive adoption, embraced by both governments and corporations as a store of value," most of the market remained in the "early-adopter phase."

Fournier had emphasized that "identifying the winning protocols now could yield extraordinary returns" and that "regulations and ongoing initiatives from governments and institutions to harness the value of digital asset innovation will play a critical role in the market's evolution." The passage of the GENIUS Act and the institutional adoption surge documented in the new research appears to confirm these predictions.

"These efforts are essential not only for fostering growth but also for ending the boom-and-bust cycles that have characterized cryptocurrencies in recent years," Fournier had written, a thesis that appears increasingly validated by the institutional infrastructure now supporting the market.

Looking Ahead

The firm concluded with confidence in the sector's trajectory: "The foundations for sustainable digital asset adoption are now firmly established across regulatory, operational, and technological dimensions. Institutions that adapt to this new reality will find significant opportunities for portfolio enhancement and operational efficiency."

With corporate Bitcoin and Ethereum adoption accelerating and institutional infrastructure continuing to mature, BRN's outlook suggests the second half of 2025 could mark a definitive shift toward mainstream digital asset adoption.

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Blockcast

Licensed to Shill V: GENIUS & CLARITY Act - Policy, Governance and Much Needed Clarity

In this episode of Licensed to Shill, Takatoshi Shibayama is joined by Lisa Tan and Nikhil Joshi as they delve into the implications of the recently passed GENIUS and CLARITY Acts against an evolving landscape of blockchain-based governance, privacy-preserving technologies and stablecoins.

Access the episode from your preferred podcast platform here .

Blockcast is hosted by Head of APAC at Ledger, Takatoshi Shibayama . Previous episodes of Blockcast can be found here , with guests like Kapil Duman (Quranium), Eric van Miltenburg (Ripple), Jeremy Tan (Singapore parliament candidate), Hassan Ahmed (Coinbase), Sota Watanabe (Startale), Nic Young (Oh), Jacob Phillips (Lombard), Chris Yu (SignalPlus), Kathy Zhu (Mezo), Samar Sen (Talos), Jason Choi (Tangent), , Mark Rydon (Aethir), Luca Prosperi (M^0), Charles Hoskinson (Cardano), and Yat Siu (Animoca Brands) on our recent shows.

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