National Trump Bitcoin Reserve to Launch in 2025? Kalshi Predicts a 50% Chance

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On March 6, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump Donald Trump Donald Trump is an American former president politician, businessman, and media personality, who served as the 45th president of the U.S. between 2017 to 2021. Trump earned a Bachelor of science in economics from the University of Pennsylvania in 1968. Trump won the 2016 presidential election as the Republican Party nominee against Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton while losing the popular vote. As president, Trump ordered a travel ban on citizens from several Muslim-majority countries, diverted military funding toward building a wall on the U.S.–Mexico border, and implemented a family separation policy. Trump has remained a prominent figure in the Republican Party and is considered a likely candidate for the 2024 presidential election President signed an Executive Order establishing a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve and a U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile . This marked a major step in integrating digital assets into the U.S. financial framework.

For now, the reserve only holds Bitcoin seized through criminal and civil forfeiture cases. But many believe this could be the beginning of something much bigger.

Is the U.S. Preparing a Full-Scale National Bitcoin Reserve?

Although limited in scope today, talk is growing around a possible expansion into a full National Bitcoin Reserve. The idea would mirror the structure of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but for digital assets.

Prediction market platform Kalshi currently puts the chances of such a move at 50%. This potential reserve would include Bitcoin not obtained through seizures – and could even involve other cryptocurrencies.

Importantly, the Kalshi contract requires that the reserve be fully functional and operational, not just announced.

Market Sentiment on the Move

Kalshi’s data shows just how much public sentiment has shifted in the past few months:

• 57.2% probability at the start of 2025
  
• 41.2% low on January 9
  
• 70.6% peak on March 6 (following Trump’s executive order)
  
• 50% as of April 22

This swing reflects growing interest and speculation as the administration takes real action on crypto policy.

Timeline: Trump’s Key Moves on Bitcoin and Crypto

• July 2024 – Trump announces plan for a Bitcoin Reserve during campaign
  
• Nov 2024 – Wins the U.S. Presidential election ; promises pro-crypto cabinet members
  
• Dec 2024 – Plans nomination of Paul S. Atkins as SEC chair
  
• Jan 2025 – Forms a crypto regulation task force via the SEC
  
• Mar 2025 – Signs Executive Order to form the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve

Each of these steps suggests a broader digital asset strategy may be in the works.

What a National Bitcoin Reserve Could Mean

If Trump moves forward with a fully operational National Bitcoin Reserve, it could mark a historic turning point in U.S. economic policy. It would position Bitcoin not just as a financial asset, but as a strategic one.

Such a development could:

• Enhance investor trust in U.S. crypto policies
  
• Accelerate regulatory clarity and institutional adoption
  
• Signal America’s leadership in global digital finance
  

Still, much will depend on how the plan is executed, how it aligns politically, and how other countries respond.

The days of digital assets sitting on the sidelines of U.S. policy may be numbered, and Bitcoin just took one step closer to the main stage.