According to Odaily Planet Daily, Bitcoin's recent volatility has nearly disappeared, but market risks remain. Data shows that in the first week of August, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw no outflows, with a cumulative net inflow of approximately $754 million. However, the price of Bitcoin remains around $64,700, while the options market is focused on betting on downside protection around $62,000 and $63,000. Market signals are diverging: on the one hand, demand for spot ETFs is picking up again; on the other hand, derivatives traders are positioning themselves for potential pullbacks, especially ahead of the release of the latest US employment data. However, the overall positioning structure still leans towards a bullish bias. Bitcoin call options account for approximately 60.7% of total open interest, indicating that investors' long-term expectations remain positive, although recent trading has been more focused on short-term risk hedging. Meanwhile, volatility protection costs are low. Deribit's DVOL index, which reflects the expected volatility of Bitcoin over the next 30 days, is currently around 35, a significant drop from its high of 90 earlier this year, suggesting that the market believes the likelihood of significant short-term volatility is limited. However, US macroeconomic data could disrupt this balance. The market expects US non-farm payrolls to increase by approximately 97,500 in July, up from 57,000 in June, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.2%. Stronger-than-expected employment data could push up US Treasury yields and strengthen expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike; weaker data could depress yields but also exacerbate market concerns about slowing economic growth. Currently, the Bitcoin market exhibits a pattern of "ETF funds supporting spot prices, and the options market protecting against downside risks." Potential risks in this low-volatility environment still warrant attention. In a market with low participation and insufficient liquidity, even small changes in supply or demand could lead to sharp fluctuations in asset prices. (CoinDesk)

Odaily Planet Daily reports that the US July non-farm payroll report will be released tonight at 8:30 PM. The market is betting on a rebound to 80,000 new jobs, but the ADP report only shows an increase of 44,000. Goldman Sachs also cautioned that July data often falls short of expectations. More importantly, while the unemployment rate remains stable, the labor force participation rate has fallen to its lowest level since 2021. According to the latest private sector employment data released this week, companies' hiring intentions have weakened, and the resilience of the job market stems more from a simultaneous slowdown in labor supply and demand than from a significant increase in hiring activity. Reuters data shows that economists expect US non-farm payrolls to increase by 80,000 in July, higher than the 57,000 increase in June; the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%, and the annual and monthly average hourly earnings are expected to remain at 3.5% and 0.3%, respectively. A survey by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal shows that economists on average expect 83,000 new jobs in July, also higher than the previous month. Although the market generally expects July job growth to improve compared to June, economists caution that the report could still fall short of expectations. Goldman Sachs economists point out that in recent years, July non-farm payroll data has often fallen short of market expectations, while employment growth in previous months has also tended to be revised significantly.