According to BlockBeats, on August 18th, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. released an analysis showing that on-chain data indicates the cost basis for long-term Bitcoin holders is $49,400, corresponding to a current price multiple of 1.3x. Bitcoin has been in a low-risk zone between the long-term holder cost basis and 1.5x for 78 consecutive days, with 1.5x corresponding to a price of approximately $74,100. The current supply to long-term holders is 16.35 million coins, only 58,000 coins lower than the historical peak of 16.41 million coins on July 30th. Supply has decreased on only two of the past 15 days, indicating that the frequency of selling by long-term holders is nearing its lowest level. The analyst points out that these two signals together indicate that the valuation remains low relative to the long-term holder cost basis, while there are almost no signs of sustained distribution from long-term holders.

Analysts emphasize that this combination represents a "constructive supply structure," but it does not constitute an independent signal that a new round of price increases has begun. The current situation indicates that long-term holders are still largely unprofitable (prices are approximately 30% above cost base), and the market remains at the lower end of its historical valuation range. However, for prices to embark on a new upward trend, further confirmation from both the demand and price sides is needed. If prices fall below $49,400, long-term holders will generally enter an unprofitable position, moving into a lower-risk zone from a valuation perspective, but from a market perspective, this would mean significantly increased pressure on long-term holders.